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Don't Judge the Surge Until 2012

Townhall commentary:

In February, I speculated it would take at least eight to 12 months before we'd know if Petraeus' approach will significantly accelerate the process. Petraeus promises an evaluation in September, so he is a month ahead of my low estimate. The year 2012 is probably a better time to evaluate it.

Yes, 2012, which is not one but two U.S. elections away. To pay off, "the surge" requires a lot of "sustain." This leads to a crucial point: A truly grievous American strategic weakness (which the surge does not address) is our own political cycle. Al-Qaida's jihadists plotted a multigenerational war. That means we must fight a multi-administration war, which entails bridging the whipsaw of the U.S. political cycle.

This is ridiculous, of course, but the purpose is to give Bush and the NeoCons breathing space. First it was 60 days, then 6 months. Now we can't tell whether the surge will work for at least five years. So the anti-war forces are just supposed to shut up until then.

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Comments (3)

I agree Paul. The writer (Austin Bay) suggests that we need to wait that long to be able to judge purely for political purposes.

His justification as to why it'll take longer...?

"But development takes a long, long time."

Wow. Convincing argument there.


Maybe it is finally catching on that this administration, and this congress (both houses, both parties) truly has no intention of leaving Iraq. The seizure and occupation of Iraq is a bid to control the middle east and offset the possible influence of China and the Soviet Union. The Corporatists want to control the production and flow of the oil. The Globalists want to control the people and religious fervor so as to prevent a Muslim world government.

Steve Crickmore:

The latest is that:

President Bush and his senior military and foreign policy advisers are beginning to discuss a "post-surge" strategy for Iraq that they hope could gain bipartisan political support. The new policy would focus on training and advising Iraqi troops rather than the broader goal of achieving a political reconciliation in Iraq
Now we are anticipating after a surge (or two) of going back to our failed strategy of 2004-6 in Iraq. I wish it were only a parady


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