As Stan Greenburg at the Democracy Corps explains, all the trends for key voter groups are moving in the right direction for the Democrats. We could be on the cusp of a new "permanent" majority for the Democratic Party in American politics:
Likely voters - The Democrats' lead in both the Presidential and Congressional races is undiminished in the 'core' group of the most likely voters. Usually, the Republicans cut some of the margin on Election Day because of turnout patterns, but that is not likely in 2008.
Well-educated and blue-collar voters: - Education - one of the best predictors of vote over the past decade - is losing its power, with both well-educated and blue collar voters moving to the Democrats. In the Congressional ballot, for example, the high school educated give the Democrat an 11 point lead, dropping to 10 points among those with some high school and 8 points among the college educated. In short, the rush to be done with the Republicans is turning America a little classless.
The rich - The 'opinion elite' in the country - those with a college education and earning more than $75,000 - are supporting the Democratic presidential candidate by 11 points (52 to 41 percent).
Catholics - The Democratic Presidential candidate is carrying all Catholics by 18 points and white Catholics by 13 (51 to 38 percent). This would represent a major change in political direction. In fact, the Democrat is running marginally ahead among white Catholics who attend Church every week.
Independents - The big difference in the race is independents: Presidentially, Democrats are ahead by 19 points; Congressionally, by 14 points. It is the crash with independents more than Republican defections that is driving the Republican vote down.
Young Voters - The Democrats are getting landslide margins with voters under 30; they are even winning whites under 30 by 14 points.
Married Women - One of the key blocs of 'swing' voters are married women. They are breaking marginally for the Democrats this year after swinging strongly for the Republicans in 2004. White married women are breaking even in the Presidential, and Congressionally, the Republican candidate is ahead by only 4 points.
Unmarried Women - One of the key blocs 'base' voters for Democrats are unmarried women - who could compromise a quarter of the electorate. The Democrats are winning them by two to one; they are winning white unmarried women by over 20 points.
Of all these groups, the most worrying for Republicans has to be young voters who are turning to the Democrats by huge margins. Studies have shown that people who vote in two successive elections for the same party tend to have their voting pattern set for life. There's no question that a large body of young voters cast ballots for Democratic candidates in the 2006 landslide election that threw the Republicans out of power in Congress. If Democrats can get those voters to repeat their choices for the 2008 elections it will help them build an insurmountable advantage that could last for decades.
My colleague Lee Ward posted yesterday on how grass-roots organizations like True Blue Women are springing up everywhere to help Democrats get elected and defeat Republicans. There's no question that the momentum is on our side and the Republicans are running scared.
Note: Wizbang Blue is now closed and our authors have moved on. Paul Hooson can now be found at Wizbang Pop!. Please come see him there!