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Why Giuliani And Thompson Can't Win

Rudolph Giuliani continues to lead both the GOP nomination race national polls and critical state polls in delegate rich contests in both the North and South. However, his candidacy is flawed enough that he is unlikely to win the general election in 2008 if nominated.

Giuliani has attempted to stake a reputation as a major fighter of terrorism. Yet the fact of the matter is that two successful terrorist attacks took place at the World Trade Center site while Giuliani was Mayor. He failed to prevent either attack and merely responded with police or firemen after both incidents already took place. He is 0 for 2 in combating terrorism. As Mayor, Giuliani was particularly involved in what he called "quality of life issues" such attempting to zone adult entertainment businesses out of the Times Square area so that the Disney Corporation could open a souvenir store there or other minor city business issues. This is the hardly the record of any major combatant against terrorism or proves any real success preventing terrorist attacks on American soil. Compared to his likely opponent, Hillary Clinton, this is a particularly weak record to run on.

Giuliani will also face substantial opposition from a strong and vocal wing of pro-life voters in his party, who could easily sit out the general election or even bolt the party and support a third party candidate from the right running on a pro-life platform.

Giuliani will not even carry his home state of New York. Some polls have him traling Hillary Clinton by nearly 20 points in their common home state. Hillary Clinton will also likely carry California and other critical Northern states with large electoral votes. But Ohio will prove to be the state that determines the ultimate winner.

Giuliani and Clinton are both character challenged, and this will become a wash for both candidates, making it difficult for either campaign to attack the other on this issue or to stand on the high moral ground on the issue. But as the election of Richard Nixon in 1968 and 1972 both proved, voters will elect a character challenged candidate if they can prove to be highly competent and able to do the job. This factor favors Clinton, not Giuliani.

Fred Thompson's problems are also difficult to overcome. So far according to FEC records his fundraising efforts has been very weak, only proving some support from his home state and some supporters in the South. In addition, Thompson has missed too many debates, the Iowa straw vote, and time needed for critical organizational work. Even if he enters the race after Labor Day, he has probably lost too much organizational time to effectively compete with the other candidates and is probably little more than a regional candidate with some real strength only in some parts of the South, and not enough support in states nationwide to win enough delegates to wrest the nomination from Giuliani.

In addition to all these problems, any Republican nominee will have to survive the reputation of the Bush Administration as well as the failed Iraq War. This factor certainly favors change, and is another major bad omen for any Republican hopes in 2008.


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Rating: 2.5/5 (8 votes cast)


Comments (14)

kim:

Paul, my dear, was Gorelick on Giuliani's staff?
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Steve Crickmore:

I have a feeling that we are going to very tired of Giuliani's schitick by November of 2008. He seems like 'I'm the war president', George W. Bush on steroids. He has one issue (9/11) that he has milked for all he he is worth on the lucrative (to him) lecture tour. But doesn't he realize that Americans have an attention deficit disorder..Here is an example of his unwavering focus, in his current article in where else 'Foreign Affairs'


We are all members of the 9/11 generation...responded forcefully to the Terrorists' War on Us, abandoning a decadelong -- and counterproductive -- strategy of defensive reaction in favor of a vigorous offense.
But this war will be long, and we are still in its early stages...

Ykes,... Iraq is just kids play for Guiliani..He is just getting warmed up...My real fear is that Clinton Or Obama don't get trapped by Giuliani's rhetoric, and try to up him, by thumping their chests just as hard..Our military is way over extended and broke as it is?

kim:

I hope al Qaeda and radical Islam is a flash in the pan. Ultimately, it will be, pumped up as it is by oddly gotten gains; but for how long do we flash? History will say, not you sorry jackasses.

There is now a much better geopolitical rationale for energy self-sufficiency than the environmental one. Particularly now that we have global cooling to get ready for.
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Steve Crickmore:

Kim, I agree that Al Queda will probably burn itself out, if we let it.
I have just been reading other reviews of Giuliani's article in 'Foreign Affairs' even by erstwhile supporters of him. This one by James Joyner


For a time, Giuliani was my favorite of the 2008 candidates. He's got serious executive experience, is a charismatic leader, and sufficiently moderate on the social issues... otherwise, I must concur in Matt Yglesias' judgment: "this man is batshit insane."

kim:

Rudy was an out of control prosecutor. I will give him youthful excess. I don't know what to think of him now. I hope he will not need to demagogue the security issue.
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bryanD:

Did I miss the mention of Ghouliani and Kerik using 7WTC Task Force HQ to boink their mistresses? Private elevator, monogrammed towels, fantasy costumes (NYPD, NYFD)?

http://whiskeyfire.typepad.com/whiskey_fire/2007/08/monday-night-ir.html

(Unfortunately, Hillary is compromised herself as a cuckolded or enabling wife/ bi-sexual? swinger (take your pick). Will feel safer sticking to boring policy DETAILS, since they both agree on war...Hillary: Weak candidate; draft Gore. Go to his house.)

In other words, Ghouliani COULD still beat Hillary, 1 on 1. Late surge on the Wild and Crazy Fun Guy vs FBI Shrew.

Thompson: P-whipped, line reading, fat and lazy flip-flopping neocon with cancer.

kim:

Sounds like a great mouthpiece. Remember, if the Board of Directors don't find adequate replacement, sell.
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kim:

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Surely you understand that, Larkin.

When was the last Senator elected President? To win these days, one has to manage a campaign; for that one needs executive ability and experience. Do yourself a favor; nominate Richardson.
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Lee Ward:

Hooson: "Giuliani has attempted to stake a reputation as a major fighter of terrorism."

I read a commentary somewhere recently where he writer referred to Giuliani as "stuck in A 9/12 time warp." So true.

Rudy's recent gaffe regarding his being "on the street" with the 9/11 rescue workers -- which was later proven to be nothing but a big lie that he later retracted -- was laughable because the reason Rudy was "on the street" at all was that the city's emergency command center was in WTC Building 7 - because that's where the dummy insisted it be located, even though it has been a terrorist target 10 years earlier.

Now that's a world-class putz!

kim:

Just think where he'd be if Bush had followed Thompson's 2001 blueprint.
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Steve Crickmore:

Lee, contiuing your metaphor Now that's a world-class putz! you are closer than you may think. Rudy's top foreign affairs advisor, who probably ghost wrote the Foreign Affairs article is in fact I wish I was kidding 'podtz'.. Norman Podhoretz, the guy who loves talking about world class wars..In October, 2004 we were already at 'World War IV: How It Started, What It Means, and Why We Have to Win ..For these two-Giuliani and Pohoretz. Bush has been a disappointing 'wimp'.

kim:

Steve, over the next year, is al-Qaeda going to act like a bunch of disaffected rich kids, or like it is a threat to civilization. Pod may be a little hyperbolic(maybe not), but you're counting on Radical Islam to just fade away with the right kind of love.
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jeff:

The reason they cannot win is because they have the little "r" next to their names.

kim:

Nobody jeff knows votes Republican.
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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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