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Ahmadinejad Counters The VFW Speech By Bush With Iran's Own Muscle

Today in a speech to the VFW convention in Reno, Nevada, President Bush may have again talked tough about Iran and their nuclear program. And new French President Nicolas Sarkozy even hinted at a possible Western attack against Iran's nuclear program. But it was a counter speech by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that flexed some real muscle in the Mideast geopolitical contest for power.

Ahmadinejad made it clear that the Bush policies in Iraq have so de-stablized the nation, and that the government in Iraq is a nearly nonexistent "power vacuum", and that Tehran is more than ready to pick up the pieces very soon as the American role is likely to soon collapse in Iraq.

This is the problem. Bush or other world leaders may talk tough about Iran, but so far Tehran has little to worry about mere saber-rattling talk with no real intent of action to back it up. And despite a terrible economy in Iran due to the inept administration of Ahmadinejad, Tehran still is nearly certain to fill the power vacuum in Iraq very soon. The American public is getting tired of the security situation in Iraq and the continued U.S. deaths. And instead of a real government in Iraq, only competing groups of sectarian religious groups and militias jockey for the real power in the country, in an anarchic situation similar to a larger-scale 1980's Lebanon. With Iran next door, there is little way to keep them out of Iraq or from using Iraq's Shiite allies to grab some power in the country or part of the immense oil wealth of the nation.

Iran all too well knows how to read the real limitations on American power in Iraq. They know that Bush is highly unlikely to take any real action against Tehran over their nuclear program because of the war in Iraq which has ruined any domestic support for the preemptive use of American military force for some years to come. Tehran also knows that American troops will soon be leaving Iraq, one way or another. Like a shark smelling blood in the water, Ahmadinejad cannot help but be pleased where the Iraq situation is headed. Ahmadinejad needs this success because he was losing support at home and with the religious leaders of his nation. Making Iraq a near satellite of Iran will certainly strengthen Ahmadinejad's questionable grip on Iranian political power and make him the major Mideast power broker in the region, giving Iran control of both sides of the narrow Strait Of Hormuz oil shipping seaway as well as access to Iraq's oil.

Bush raised the stakes way too high in the Iraq misadventure, and set the situation up to fall into a terrible failure by failing the understand the important caution that needs to follow careful foreign policy decisions. Now Iran is in the driver seat to pick up the pieces in Iraq unless Bush can make an unlikely case for a crisis to rally American support for military action against Iran But after Iraq, that is highly unlikely.


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Comments (5)

michael:

Paul the ramifications from The Chimp's saber-rattling and Der Führer Cheney's lust for an Iranian war are beyond imagination.

Among other things, Iran could promote an attack on Saudi oil fields and quite probably shut down the Straits, ushering in a worldwide depression like never before seen.

The incentive for terrorist recruitment would explode beyond anything that the reckless Iraqi venture has engendered.

And Sarkozy notwithstanding, the French as well as all Of Europe would erupt in the condemnation of the US as never before.

It would amount to the permanent darkening, if not extinction, of all the promise of the 21st century that was so eagerly anticipated at the millenium before an imbecillic maniac was appointed to the Presidency by SCOTUS.

This all could happen because a silly Chimp, who had no more foreign policy acumen than possibly ordering Chinese carryout while visiting daddums in Beijing.

Steve Crickmore:

Bush::(Terrorist) operations seek to create images of chaos and carnage to break the will of the American people
This blogger makes one of several good points in rebuttal.


And why is "the will of the American people" always defined in terms of a will to kick some ass? According to the opinion polls, the actual will of the American people is to withdraw from Iraq.

If Bush would listen to the wiil of the American people for a change, we might actually make some strides towards stability in the Middle East.

sean nyc/aa:

Making Iraq a near satellite of Iran will certainly strengthen Ahmadinejad's questionable grip on Iranian political power and make him the major Mideast power broker in the region, giving Iran control of both sides of the narrow Strait Of Hormuz oil shipping seaway as well as access to Iraq's oil.
Paul Hooson

You are mistaken about this. The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and is nowhere near Iraq (regionally speaking). Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are the countries which control the Strait and the US still has those three (as well as Bahrain in the central Persian Gulf) as nominal allies.

Sean, Iran doesn't respect the normal international limits on seaways, and will likely use any new power or control within Iraq to justify placing their Navy to enforce wider seaway limits. Look at the British sailors who were seized earlier this year and held hostage for a few days as a good example of the trouble they can cause.

sean nyc/aa:

Iran doesn't respect the normal international limits on seaways, and will likely use any new power or control within Iraq to justify placing their Navy to enforce wider seaway limits.

That may be true and I wasn't trying to argue that should tensions escalate with Iran, they could easily shut down shipping activity through the Strait.

I was merely pointing out that your claim is factually incorrect. Whatever happens in Iraq has no impact on Iran's claims to the Strait (or the Persian Gulf generally as Iraq only has a small sliver which touchs the Gulf - this was one of the reasons for the first Gulf War, to "reclaim" Kuwait which has significantly more water access despite being considerably smaller than Iraq, in addition, of course, to all the oil that sits directly off the Kuwaiti coast).


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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