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Al Gore is Right Again, Humberto Says So

"...the scientific community is warning us that the average hurricane will continue to get stronger because of global warming. A scientist at MIT has published a study well before [Katrina hit New Orleans] showing that since the 1970s, hurricanes in both the Atlantic and the Pacific have increased in duration, and in intensity, by about 50%."
    -- Al Gore, September 9, 2005

And now there are more signs of highly unusual hurricane phenomena emerging. Bush's team of liars don't want you to believe it, but Al Gore is right again.

Texas, meet Humberto.

humberto_2007_9_14_1145Z
Texans went to bed Wednesday night expecting to be struck by a tropical storm. They awoke to find they'd been hit by a hurricane instead.

The stunningly fast buildup of what became Hurricane Humberto shocked scientists, some of whom said there was nothing like it on record.

In just 18 hours, Humberto strengthened from a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph to a Category 1 hurricane with 85-mph winds before crashing ashore. It did not grow into a hurricane until after midnight.

"That has never before happened" in the more than 150 years that scientists have been tracking hurricanes, said James Franklin, a senior specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"It's very, very rare to see a storm go from a depression to a hurricane in this short a time," he said. "It's only happened four times before since 1851, and this is the only one to do this just before landfall."

Expect more of the same, while Bush and the right-wing sycophant liars fiddle with our future.

The truth bears repeating:

Humberto strengthened from a 30 knot depression at 1500Z September 12 to a 75 knot hurricane at 0900Z September 13. No tropical cyclone in the historical record has reached this intensity at a faster rate near landfall.
    -- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

UPDATE: Wizbang Blue's Steve Crickmore points us to this bit of bad news for BushCorp. from ThinkProgress:

In an interview with the BBC, Professor John Marburger, Bush's chief science adviser, said it was an "unequivocal" fact that climate change is man-made and that greenhouse gases emitted by human activity are to blame.

Marburger said he "strongly agrees" with the IPCC reports and "supports its conclusions." He added:

I think there is widespread agreement on certain basics, and one of the most important is that we are producing far more CO2 from fossil fuels than we ought to be. And it's going to lead to trouble unless we can begin to reduce the amount of fossil fuels we are burning and using in our economies. [...]

The CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere and there's no end point, it just gets hotter and hotter, and so at some point it becomes unliveable.[...]

Just this past February, Cheney asserted, "There does not appear to be a consensus" that global warming is "caused by man." Bush has repeatedly echoed Cheney's line that there is a "debate" over the science.

A video clip of the interview is available at ThinkProgress.


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» Al Gore's Speech at the United Nations 9/24/07 (Audio - 19:25) from Wizbang Blue
Al Gore, speaking at the U.N. Summit last Monday, September 24, 2007: Click the black triangle to play the audio file. You can download an mp3 copy of the audio file at this link. The Republicans and their political operatives... [Read More]



Comments (8)

ke_future:

and of course, a 150 year historical record shows every thing that is possible to happen. (and yes that is snarky, but the earth has been around for billions of years. a 150 year sample seems hardly conclusive)

that aside, i'm generally on board with the idea that the Earth is warming.

questions that i have, that i've never seen really good answers to, or i've seen multiple answers to:

how much is it warming?
when did this warming start?
how much of the warming is caused by humans?
can you show with scientific proof, that the warming is actually being caused by human activities?

It's frustrating that people are blaming Bush...errr i mean humans, for the warming of the Earth. Don't people realize that the Earth has been warming and cooling for millions of years without any input from us primates?

spending lots of money to somehow prove that humans are the cause seems silly to me. i think a better use of the money would be 1) to study what the real possible effects of warming would be 2) come up with plans to minimize the impact as much as possible.

for if there is one thing i know, some day the climate of the earth will be warmer than it is today. and one day it will be cooler.

mantis:

how much is it warming?

At any given moment? Some. If you look at the trend, the modern warming period (since about 1975) has seen increases in global temperatures of about 0.5 degrees Celsius.

when did this warming start?

The modern warming period, which is outside of all known natural cycles, started at about 1975.

how much of the warming is caused by humans?

Well, getting an exact number is tricky, but it is clear that human contribution to the current warming is significant.

can you show with scientific proof, that the warming is actually being caused by human activities?

Yes, but this requires you to read and understand the scientific literature, something most people are unwilling to do.

Don't people realize that the Earth has been warming and cooling for millions of years without any input from us primates?

Yes, especially people who study climate. The current warming is not part of those natural cycles.

spending lots of money to somehow prove that humans are the cause seems silly to me. i think a better use of the money would be 1) to study what the real possible effects of warming would be 2) come up with plans to minimize the impact as much as possible.

Money is spent studying all of those things.

for if there is one thing i know, some day the climate of the earth will be warmer than it is today. and one day it will be cooler.

Great. Some of us are concerned about the impact of the current warming on ecosystems, and the economy and livelihood of human beings. I'm glad you can take the long view, but none of us are worried that the Earth will no longer have regular climate cycles.


Now, on to Hurricanes. In light of Humberto, Rabbett dug up a study about hurricane intensity and climate:

The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate
Kerry A. Emanuel, Center for Meteorology and Physical Oceanography

- In this spirit we use a simple Carnot cycle model to estimate the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones under the somewhat warmer conditions expected to result from increased atmospheric CO2 content. Estimates based on August mean conditions over the tropical oceans predicted by a general circulation model with twice the present CO2 content yield a 40-50% increase in the destructive potential of hurricanes.

Published in 1987.

mantis:

In case you don't understand the significance of that study, ke_future, let me spell it out for you. The most important test of most science is the ability of theory to make accurate predictions. Climate science predicted the increased destructiveness of hurricanes due to increased CO2 levels twenty years ago. That accuracy of that prediction is becoming clear, and will become moreso in the years to come (or it will be shown to be inaccurate, in which case it's back to the drawing board).

Steve Crickmore:

Conservatives on wizbangclassic latch on to 2006, with the less than the normal amount of large hurricanes, as Gore/global warming denying evidence, but 2006 turned out to be weak hurricane year as scientists predicted because of the warming El Nino current.

I think many are missing the main point that is extreme weather in general...There is strong evidence that extreme weather events - such as hurricanes, floods, droughts and heat waves - are increasing because of climate change....Where I live in the center of Brazil, it is increasingly harsh droughts, even in the Amazon basin, that is the most worrisome.

Steve Crickmore:

Anyway, it appears that the right blogosphere, so antideluivian, on this issue (like so many others) are going to face serious cognitive dissonance on this subject soon, as Bush's own science adviser gives this stark warning. See video "The CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere and there's no end point, it just gets hotter and hotter, and so at some point it becomes unliveable"

mantis:

Well, Marburger is clearly beholden to environmental interests and is just saying that to continue getting research funding for his fabulously rich climate researcher friends, who all have gold houses and rocketcars. And, um, Al Gore is fat!

Lee Ward:

Screw the rocketcar - I want one of these..

Herman:

To think that nothing gets done in the U.S. for eight long years with regards to global warming all because of a butterfly ballot and a criminal US Supreme Court. Instead of a man of vision we got a short-sighted chimp, who tells his moronic supporters, don't worry, keep your gas-guzzling SUVs with the Bush-Cheney bumperstickers, because doing something to stop global warming is all "voluntary." When you pollute the air that this bicyclist breathes, conservatives, there should be restrictions on your activity!!


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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