Since this weekend a flurry of new information seems to point in the direction that a bombing mission against Iran may soon take place. On Saturday morning, both MSNBC and FOX cable news reported that the U.S. military has drawn up plans for a limited bombing campaign aimed at destroying munitions factories in Iran responsible for producing the IED devices so lethal to U.S. troops in Iraq.
On Sunday, General David Patraeus had some highly unusual political comments claiming that the Iranian ambassador in Iraq was actually a member of the Iranian paramilitary. Iran is known to have a military force that comprises over four million regular military, paramilitary and special forces. The comments by Patraeus seem to be part of a coordinated political effort by the Bush Administration to lay out the military justification for a strike on Iran, and were indeed a very controversial use of the military to bolster White House policy instead of the normal independent role for the nation's military.
On Monday, CBN news, which is now credible enough that NBC's MEET THE PRESS often invites the head of this news organization on as commentator, added more fuel to the speculation that attacks on Iran will soon take place. It was claimed that information from Britain's Gordon Brown, head of the Labor Party majority in Parliament, indicated that Britain could be part of attacks on targets in Iran involving the Republican Guard as well as Iran's nuclear program.
CBN also noted that the air strikes attacks on Iran could come very soon. CBN noted that Iran uses the same sort of mobile Russian built radar systems that Israel was successfully able to "blind" during their recent attacks on suspected North Korean built weapons sites in Syria. The only positive note from CBN was that the U.S. encouraged Israel to hold off their attacks until more credible information could be found that the Syrian sites were involved with nuclear weapons since U.S. intelligence could not detect any evidence of nuclear material. But Israeli intelligence claimed to had better intelligence about the Syrian sites, and then decided to act. Now the success of the Israeli air strikes have only influenced the U.S. that they could act against Iran with little chance of loss of aircraft.
But this is not to say that Iran could not act with it's military and respond in some very serious ways. Iran's small Navy has a potent force of anti-ship missiles such as the Russian built SS-N-22 Sunburn or Chinese built C-802, and could sink any oil tankers headed for the U.S. and help cut our oil supply in the narrow Strait Of Hormuz. And Iran could launch missile attacks on their mainly Sunni religious rival, Saudi Arabia. Using improved GPS tracking and their satellites in orbit, Iran could also aim missiles at the American Green Zone in Iraq and make our ground bases very vulnerable to such lethal missile attacks. With a big population of about 65.4 million persons, Iran could quickly respond with massive ground forces to invade Iraq and attempt a ground push on towards Israel as well.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is currently losing support at home in Iran due to sharp increases in both unemployment and inflation, and was even heckled by students at a Tehran university appearance yesterday. But he is a dangerous religious zealot who as mayor of Tehran widened the streets of the city to prepare for the fundamentalist end-timer belief that a final 12th Prophet will walk down those streets when Iran creates a final showdown with the Christian world. Ahmadinejad likely welcomes a bloody conflict with the U.S. and Israel and hopes to die as a martyr to bring his extremist religious views to life. This is very dangerous. And likely any pro-democracy elements will vanish with any U.S. attack on Iran as well, and only unite the nation in an unpredictable way against both the U.S. and Israel.
It is a political decision on the part of George Bush to decide whether or not to pull the trigger on Iran in the next few days. But with the continued stalemate in both Iraq and Afghanistan, a huge new war with a large foe like Iran could have very dangerous consequences. As long as Ahmadinejad is on the ropes politically in Iran with sinking support at home, why not let his own people get a first chance to peacefully reform the Tehran government and see what happens. There is no need for a dangerous and unpredictable U.S. war against Iran at this time.
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