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Poll: Clinton Weathering the Storm, Increasing in Popularity

Dan Balz, on the campaign trail for the Washington Post, analyzes the results of a recent Washington Post/ABC News public opinion poll which show surprising and growing strength among liberals favoring Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama:

Hillary Clinton's opponents have accused her of sounding too hawkish on Iran, of refusing to commit to a firmer timetable for removing troops from Iraq and of generally moving to the center -- all criticisms designed to undermine her support among the Democratic Party's liberal base.

But a new Washington Post-ABC News poll of the 2008 race shows a surprising trend: Clinton's support among liberals is actually rising, not falling, as the nomination debate has intensified.

A review of Post-ABC polls throughout the year, assembled by analyst Jennifer Agiesta of our polling unit, shows that Clinton has expanded her overall lead in the Democratic race in large part because of growing support among self-identified liberals.

The new poll [data] showed 54 percent of liberals said they supported Clinton for the Democratic nomination, the second consecutive poll in which she has won the backing of more than half of all liberals. That represents a significant jump in liberal support from earlier in the year, when she was backed by 40-43 percent of those who identified themselves as liberals.

The opposite has happened to Barack Obama. His support among liberals has actually declined over the course of the campaign. He began the year with the support of 33 percent of liberals, topped out at 36 percent in July and now has drifted down to 25 percent.

Meanwhile, both the support Clinton and Obama have among moderate and conservative Democrats has changed relatively little since the beginning of the year. Last February 44 percent of moderates and conservatives said they supported Clinton and in the new poll, that figure is 46 percent. For Obama, his moderate/conservative support in February was 24 percent; today it's 26 percent.

Another way to look at this is by comparing the Clinton-Obama margins among the different groups at the beginning of the year and today. In February Clinton had a 20-point advantage over Obama among moderates-and-conservative Democrats but just a 7-point margin among liberals. In the new poll, Clinton's margin among moderates and conservatives is 20 points, but her margin among liberals had jumped to 29 points.

The criticisms of Clinton, heard from both the far left and the right in a strange form of an anti-Hillary cabal, are designed to undermine her growing popularity but as seen from the above they are not having the desired effect - quite the opposite. By making Clinton out as the "one to beat' they've elevated her to a higher status. She's now looking more invincible than ever.

If Clinton's opponents believe she is vulnerable because of her positions on Iraq and Iran, the polls do not bear it out. The Post-ABC News poll asked Democrats to say, regardless of whom they support for the nomination, which candidate would be best able to handle the situation in Iraq and in Iran. In both cases her support among liberals was slightly higher than her support from moderate and conservatives.

More after the jump:

On Iraq, 54 percent of liberals and 48 percent of moderates said Clinton was best equipped to handle the situation there, while a quarter of each group named Obama. On Iran, 56 percent of liberals and 50 percent of moderates named Clinton as the person they thought could best deal with the Iranian nuclear threat.

Clinton also has continued to enjoy solid support among those Democrats who favor immediate withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Iraq -- something only New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has advocated. In the latest Post-ABC poll, 45 percent of those who support immediate withdrawal said they prefer Clinton as the Democratic nominee compared to 26 percent for Obama.

Obama has campaigned throughout the year on his early opposition to the war. Clinton voted for the 2002 resolution authorizing President Bush to go to war against Iraq, but Obama, as a candidate for the Senate, spoke out against it at the time.

But Clinton has widened her margin over Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who say get out now. In June, she led Obama by 8 points among those who favor immediate withdrawal; in the new poll, she leads by 19 points.

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Comments (3)

Steve Crickmore[TypeKey Profile Page]:

50 percent of respondents would support Clinton, 46 percent Giuliani.

In a head to head, it is still prety close. though for those who have been reading this blog know Giuliani will have much to answer for when the real mud slinging starts. Giuliani's act of trying to imitate Gengis Khan in the Middle East is another reason why in comparison, Clinton's positioning of herself towards the center on Iraq and Iran makes for smart and safe if a trifle boring, electoral politics.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

True - but according to data point #7 Clinton is trending up and Giuliani is trending down.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

re: Clinton on Iraq - a lot can happen between now and 12 months from now. For Clinton to make a definitive statement now will be words she might have to eat November 1, 2008.

It's one of the reasons that her opponents keep trying to pin her down. Give them another reason to hang her on her own words.

I believe that -- in principle -- she's for ending the war in Iraq as quickly as possible. I don't think anyone can define today exactly what we should do when the new president takes office in January 2009.

Clinton is smart enough to avoid these traps - another reason why she's rising in the polls among Democrats. Avoiding campaign pitfalls and traps is a "winning" characteristic.


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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