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Democrats Rising, Republicans Falling

The latest USA Today/Gallup Poll shows an interesting trend. All of the Democrats are increasing in approval ratings while at the same time the Republicans are falling. Listed below are the candidates and their scores for the last two polls.

Question: "Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them."

  • Hillary Clinton > + 4 points
  • December 16 -- Favorable 51% Unfavorable 46%
  • December 02 -- Favorable 47% Unfavorable 50%
  • Barack Obama > + 4 points
  • December 16 -- Favorable 57% Unfavorable 30%
  • December 02 -- Favorable 53% Unfavorable 33%
  • John Edwards > + 3 points
  • December 16 -- Favorable 53% Unfavorable 33%
  • December 02 -- Favorable 50% Unfavorable 35%
  • Rudy Giuliani > - 2 points
  • December 16 -- Favorable 50% Unfavorable 41%
  • December 02 -- Favorable 52% Unfavorable 37%
  • Mitt Romney > - 4 points
  • December 16 -- Favorable 32% Unfavorable 35%
  • December 02 -- Favorable 36% Unfavorable 30%
  • Mike Huckabee > +1, but a 6 point increase in unfavorable rating
  • December 16 -- Favorable 34% Unfavorable 24%
  • December 02 -- Favorable 33% Unfavorable 16%
  • John McCain > -1 point
  • December 16 -- Favorable 54% Unfavorable 30%
  • December 02 -- Favorable 55% Unfavorable 30%
  • Fred Thompson > - a whopping 9 points
  • December 16 -- Favorable 30% Unfavorable 34%
  • December 02 -- Favorable 39% Unfavorable 26%

The anomaly is Huckabee, who has seen a big increase in name recognition. His name recognition increased 11 percent, but his unfavorable rating increased 8 percent and his favorable rating increased only 1 percent. As new people get to know him a majority of those folks newly-acquainted with Huckabee are finding him "unfavorable."

Huck is following in Thompson's footsteps - the more you see him and get to know him the less you like him.

Things are looking good for the Blue team...

Note: Wizbang Blue is now closed and our authors have moved on. Paul Hooson can now be found at Wizbang Pop!. Please come see him there!

  • Currently 3.5/5
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Rating: 3.5/5 (8 votes cast)

Comments (3)

The most important aspects of the fav/unfav ratings are being over 50% favorable, and having a wide spread (20%+) between favorable and unfavorable. Thus we see Obama, Edwards, and McCain have the advantage of a public inclined to at least listen to them.

I'm not sure the cases of Huckabee and Thompson are so similar, though. Thompson lost a lot of his, I believe, because of his lackluster campaign, especially at the beginning. Postponing entry as long as he did, he had built high expectations he would "hit the ground running hard," but he clearly didn't. Huckabee, OTOH, was a second-tier candidate, so no one paid much attention to his record or positions. His excellent speaking skills won him accolades from the debates, and finishing 2nd in the Ames Straw Poll (after Rudy and McCain wimped out and didn't compete) gave him some credibility.

Huck's losing the initial warm and favorable glow as people begin to look at him more closely. As an "evangelical Christian conservative" myself, two very large objections I have are his thinly-veiled anti-Mormonism and his refusal to release his sermons. Every preacher I've ever known would be thrilled to find his old sermons a matter of interest to anyone.

Something just doesn't smell right about the guy . . .


What is most interesting thing to me is the inset in the lower right hand part of the link that has the bar graph showing favorable vs. unfavorable of all the candidates. Particularly the white area in between each which might mean no opinion (as yet, let's assume). With Hillary there is almost no white area. She is so well known I guess that almost everyone has an opinion on her. Does she have any significant leeway to change minds because of this if she is nominated? I don't know. With the Republican candidates there are much larger margins of uncommitted/ undecided. Will this be important when the actual nominee of the GOP is chosen and the public will get to know him, whoever him is, better? For me polls today mean nothing in this primary season regarding who is most likely to become President. The polls only have a chance of becoming majorly predictive once the nominees are chosen.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

Pity the poor Republican voters, who initially favored McCain but then fell for Giuliani's bullshit, then were whipsawed by the dream that wasn't (Fred Thompson) only to end up following Mike Huckabee long enough to find out that he's a bible-thump'ing Evangelista who is a few fries short of a happy meal.

And now they wander back into the McCain camp, bloodied and bruised and disillusioned.

So do we tell them now that McCain is 147 years old and inches away from Alzheimer's or do we wait until March? Heh.


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Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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