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Iowa Predictions

Update I: Democratic caucus results are here. Republican caucus results are here. (By the way, the Republican site is slower than molasses and is loaded with crap so it takes forever to come up. The Democratic site is clean and very fast. All of which raises an interesting question: why do Republicans suck so much at the Internet? If they can't figure out how to create a good web site they certainly shouldn't be running the country.)

Update II: Can't get much tighter than this (20% of precincts reporting).

Edwards : 33.44%
Clinton : 32.24%
Obama : 31.63%

Update III. Obama breaks on top with over 50% in. Is this the end of John Edwards' campaign?

Obama : 34.06%
Edwards : 31.71%
Clinton : 31.45%

Update IV:Obama and Huckabee are the big winners:

Obama : 37.57%
Edwards : 29.83%
Clinton : 29.39%

Huckabee: 34%
Romney: 25%
Thompson: 13%
McCain: 13%
Paul: 10%
Giuliani: 4%

Observations: Edwards and Clinton are both seriously damaged by the magnitude of Obama's victory. Romney has been mortally wounded and will likely lose New Hampshire to McCain now.


These are my predictions on how the Iowa caucuses are going to turn out tomorrow (Lee concurs):

Democrat

Obama32%
Clinton30%
Edwards25%


Republican

Huckabee30%
Romney28%
McCain15%
Paul12%
Thompson8%
Giuliani5%

The electronic markets are also forecasting wins for Obama and Huckabee.

What do you think?


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Comments (2)

Steve Crickmore[TypeKey Profile Page]:

Larkin...I'm expecting Edwards to do a little better than you have predicted, even before I read the latest Zogby poll which has Clinton fading... While Obama and Clinton have been trading blows against one another, Edwards has stayed on message and picked up points, as the stalwart defender of 'the little guy'.

Lee Ward:

Huckabee has the Christian Church groups and Edwards has the unions, and those are probably the two best 'get out the vote' organizations in Iowa. Those two could prevail on that basis along.

I'd expect single-parents and the elderly to be very unrepresented in the caucus, just because it will be more difficult for them to attend.

Whoever wins should receive a boost nationally, but it will only confirm what we already know; that Clinton is not unbeatable, that a lot of people favor a major change from the status quo, that evangelicals will have a major say in the GOP platform, etc.

It's still a horse race, no matter who reaches the first turn in the lead.


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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