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New Hampshire Predictions

Time for my New Hampshire predictions. On the Democratic side, it will be a blowout for Obama. I'm also predicting that Edwards vaults past Clinton (barely) into second place.

Obama: 40%
Edwards: 26%
Clinton: 25%
Richardson: 7%

On the Republican side, I hate to say it but I think Mitt Romney is going to win a less than decisive victory over John McCain:

Romney: 30%
McCain: 28%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 10%
Giuliani: 8%
Thompson: 6%


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Comments (4)

Lee Ward:

I agree on your assessment of the Democrats' tallies, but I think McCain will squeak by with a narrow victory margin. Romney is being shoved down the throats of folks in New Hampshire by the conservative bloggers and the conservative media (via tools like Frank Lutz). I expect New Hampshire Republicans don't appreciate it at all...

McCain is playing this correctly in my view, (he held up a sign calling for an end to Global Warming yesterday -- he "gets" it now) and I expect the "we want change" movement to spill over into the GOP side as New Hampshire voters "say no" to Mitt Romney.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

Romney will hang in there even if he loses, and if he loses here he'll have more difficulty raising cash and will have to spend more of his own as a result, no?

Steve Crickmore:

Romney the most unelectable?
Though I haven't been following this race nearly as closely as the Democrats, I think that Romney is the only formidable perceived threat that I think, it is safe to say our probable nominee now Obama, a thoroughly modern candidate could face. Despite Romney's unconvincing cartwheels to appease the Republican neanderthals he still looks like a modern candidate and in a national election he could ditch the GOP 'rank n file' and revert to sounding more as if he was a moderate Governor. He has a comphehensive state health plan, has plenty of real executive experience and oozes confidence. Who knows what he really believes in other than getting into to the White House, but that might be safer than knowing what the other GOP candidates believe in.

McCain would be 80 years old at the end of his second Presidential term in 2016. He will likely get the octogenerian vote, most the Republicans seem that age in spirit, but surely he can't carry the country. That's not the new direction 75% of Americans desperately want.

In every case, I think the GOP are screwed, with the possible exception of Romney, and if they carry this into a convention deadlock, so much the better for them.

Steve Crickmore:

After I posted my comment, I read this column by David Brooks...It gives McCain a little more credit than I have, and confirms the strengths of Obama. Hat-tip to Benen again I agree with Steve Benen if liberal beliefs are really what you believe in, the point is not to compromise them as Brooks feels you should do but to widen their appeal as Obama is trying to do.


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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