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Calling the Nevada Democratic Primary

obama_edwards_clinton.jpg
  1. Hillary Clinton
  2. Barack Obama
  3. John Edwards

I think union voters will be less loyal to Obama than most people believe, and that many hispanic union members will support Hillary in spite of the union bosses swinging their weight behind Obama.

As much as logic tells me that Edwards voters should start moving into Obama's camp as the race proceeds and their candidate John Edwards looks less and less likely to succeed, there's also a contrarian side of me that thinks there might be some Edwards voters who have remained loyal to their candidate because they just haven't bought into the Obama message that all we have to do is wish real hard and everything Democrats want will come true.

Perhaps there are enough Edwards loyalists who now realize that although Edwards isn't going to make it the nomination, they still want a candidate with more experience and political savvy than Obama offers.I see those as among the first of Edwards voters to leave the Edwards camp.

I still think that, in the fullness of time, eventually more Edwards voters will move to Obama, but I think the first to bail out of the Edwards camp will be the non-Hillary haters, and that we'll see more Edwards voters move towards Clinton in Nevada, and then more Edwards voters move towards Obama in South Carolina, or perhaps even later in California on February 5th.

Just a hunch. We'll know the results in 24 hours.


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Comments (5)

Lee Ward:

Yep. Romney's the biggest liar among them, so he's going to start moving away from the pack with a big win in Nevada.

If I had to pick the surprising news from the Republican Nevada primary it'll be how well Ron Paul does.

scorchednuts[TypeKey Profile Page]:

I'm hoping for an Obama upset today, and I think it's going to be really close. Even if he loses, it will be by a slim margin, and he will go into S.C. next week pretty strong. Edwards really needs to drop out. He is not going to win any states and he must realize that. If he did, who do you think his supporters would go to?

Civil behavior:

Isn't it nice that all we can do is talk about the three candidates that the media preselected.

Whatever happened to democracy of "we the people".

You guys have been at this so long you don't even realize the capitulations you've made in the name of propoganda by the fourth estate.

By the time one half on one percent of the citizenry voted in Iowa and NH we culled all the best candidates.

I am in Florida. I have been somewhat conflicted thinking my vote mattered and I should swing it towards Edwards but at this point I'll vote Kucinich and confirm that no matter what, this country is going down the tubes.

There is no chance whatsoever to save this country from empire. It's what THEY want and it is what THEY"LL get. Public be damned.

Lee Ward:

I sympatize with you, CB. I'm not a huge fan of Kucinich's but I think Biden, Dodd and Richardson are all strong enough candidates to have deserved more support than what they got.

If all things were equal, I would be supporting one of them over the the three stooges we're now left with.

Shawn:

Am I the only one who has wondered why we do not know much about Obama???

How can anyone vote for a man or woman who will not sit one on one and tell the world about himself, his stands, his views for his minister's beliefs and exactly what changes he is going to make and with what experience he will make these changes.


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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