- Hillary Clinton
- Barack Obama
- John Edwards
I think union voters will be less loyal to Obama than most people believe, and that many hispanic union members will support Hillary in spite of the union bosses swinging their weight behind Obama.
As much as logic tells me that Edwards voters should start moving into Obama's camp as the race proceeds and their candidate John Edwards looks less and less likely to succeed, there's also a contrarian side of me that thinks there might be some Edwards voters who have remained loyal to their candidate because they just haven't bought into the Obama message that all we have to do is wish real hard and everything Democrats want will come true.
Perhaps there are enough Edwards loyalists who now realize that although Edwards isn't going to make it the nomination, they still want a candidate with more experience and political savvy than Obama offers.I see those as among the first of Edwards voters to leave the Edwards camp.
I still think that, in the fullness of time, eventually more Edwards voters will move to Obama, but I think the first to bail out of the Edwards camp will be the non-Hillary haters, and that we'll see more Edwards voters move towards Clinton in Nevada, and then more Edwards voters move towards Obama in South Carolina, or perhaps even later in California on February 5th.
Just a hunch. We'll know the results in 24 hours.
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