Barack Obama's performance in yesterday's Florida primary confirms the weaknesses shown in his South Carolina win, demonstrating that his support among non-black voters has fallen considerably as compared to his performance in Iowa.
There's a big difference at work here in the primary races going forward. Obama spent 8 long months on the ground in Iowa winning over the Iowa electorate, and what we see in Florida (where he did not campaign) among non-black voters is not much different from his performance among non-white voters in South Carolina, where he campaigned extensively.
We can expect Obama to pull well in the remaining states which have a high percentage of black voters, but with so little time left before next Tuesday's (that's right NEXT Tuesday's) multi-state primary, he will need to pitch a strong appeal to John Edwards' supporters and the remaining undecideds or soft-support votes in order to have a good showing in next Tuesday's primaries.
Next Tuesday's races in all likelihood won't decide who the next nominee is, but it will define the degree of difficulty Tuesday's loser will have to face in overcoming whatever lead develops.I firmly believe Obama will be there at the convention as a viable alternative, but at this point I'd have to guess that Clinton will walk into the convention with the most delegates.
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