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Obama Leads in Key Super Tuesday States

Zogby's polling shows Obama pulling even, and slightly ahead, in key Super Tuesday match-ups.

"On the Democratic side, California, Missouri and New Jersey are so close.

calif_20080203.JPGObama's lead in California is by virtue of solid support in the Bay Area and among Independents (by 20 points), men (20 points), 18-29 year olds (31 points), very liberal voters (22 points), and African Americans (75%-14%). Clinton does well among women (11 points) and among Hispanics (64%-29%).

mo_20080203.JPGIn Missouri, Obama has solid leads in the St. Louis region (16 points), with Independents (7 points), young voters (16 points), and African Americans (62%-26%). He also leads among moderates and men. Clinton leads in Kansas City (7 points), in the Southwest (16 points), and among liberals (8 points), women (5 points), and among voters over 65 (25 points).

nj_20080203.JPG"Obama leads in both Northern and Southern New Jersey, among men, and among African Americans (74%16%), while Clinton again holds Hispanics (19 points), whites (10 points), moderates (8 points), liberals (8 points), Jews (22 points), women (9 points), and voters over 65.

"It is all about delegates and these numbers suggest that both candidates get respectable votes and a lot of delegates."

The key will be the undecideds (many of which are Edwards supporters) and each respective candidates' ability to get out the vote.

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Comments (2)

Steve Crickmore:

Well that is great news for Obama supporters, that either one is in the lead...
Gallup had Clinton's national lead decreasing from 7 to 2. On the other hand the good news for Clinton supporters is Rasmussen Reports based on a rolling tracking score had Clinton building a stronger national lead up to 11 points over Obama.

Lee Ward:

The national poll is beginning to lose relevance, and it's the sum of the state polls and their respective delegate counts that matter. There Obama is edging ahead at this point.

Where I predicted a week ago that Clinton would edge out Obama in delegates gained on Tuesday, I'm beginning to doubt that now.


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Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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