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California Turns for Obama, Missouri and New Jersey for Clinton

Super Tuesday has arrived, and the latest tracking poll from Zogby International has both good news and bad news for the respective Democratic candidates.

California has continued to move solidly into the Obama camp, with both Independents and Democrats, and men and women demographics, favoring Barack. Maybe that Grateful Dead benefit concert last night got a few more voters fired up for Obama.

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Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Clinton picked up a few points, although this seesaw battle is within the margin of error, so it's really a tossup, nothing more. Although 10% of New Jersey voters are undecided, only 2% of that number are young voters.

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Things are equally close in Missouri, with Obama on top but within the margin of error. St. Louis, which borders Obama's native state of Illinois, is a large Obama stronghold, and statewide he has a 10 percent margin among men.

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At this point the undecideds nationwide are going to be made up of Edwards supporters for the most part, and I predicted over a week ago that the Edwards folks were going to break for Obama on a 2-1 margin, and I'm sticking to that prediction.

That should give Obama a small but comfortable margin in the majority of states voting today as long the dreaded 'Bradley effect' doesn't come into play. It's been largely missing so far, so I'm not expecting to see it at work to any significant degree.


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Comments (2)

Imhotep:

St Louis has an extremely large black population, so I'm not suprized by the strong Obama support.

The same goes for the Missouri side of Kansas City (Jackson county), it's nearly 85% black.

Those areas are superblue on the county political maps.

Lee Ward:

St Louis also borders Illinois, and has a sister-city of East St. Louis, Illinois, just a stone's throw away on the other side of the Mississippi River.

You could see the effect of the St. Louis vote as the results first came in for Missouri with Clinton in the lead, then slowly shifted to Obama. That's the only state where the "predicted winner" flipped...


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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