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Clinton Campaign Now Under New Mismanagement

The Clinton campaign is reeling after five fresh losses to Barack Obama and has responded with big wholesale campaign management changes, as more and more evidence suggests that Senator Obama might just be able to wrest the Democratic nomination from Clinton despite still trailing her nationally by about 8 points in polls. A solid string of victories over the weekend in caucus states as well as Rasmussen are now giving Obama 70% odds of winning the nomination as well as solid poll leads in states like Virginia and Maryland, all suggesting that Obama may just be on the path to victory. And Clinton's campaign cash problems don't help much either.

However there are still a few Clinton advantages not to be overlooked. So far the superdelegates break heavily in her favor. And the delegates from Michigan and Florida could be given back their votes and would heavily favor Clinton as well. This old party boss structure helped to give Walter Mondale his victory over Gary Hart in 1984. And Clinton seems to do best in actual primary states compared to the mostly caucus wins of Obama.

Polls certainly suggest that Clinton would be the weakest of the candidates for the Democrats to run against John McCain in November. Obama would be the strongest candidate. But like a relic from the old smoke-filled days of party bosses, the superdelegates were formed as a form of a circuit breaker to prevent another George McGovern type fiasco loss as 1972. But if they continue to break in Clinton's favor despite the building recent support for Obama, then it could turn off the huge number of young voters, independents and African Americans the Democrats really need to put together a winning coalition to defeat McCain in November.

Can Clinton come back? The Clintons are known for bringing out the claws and nails when the chips are down. There are enough big primary states left that Clinton can still stage a major comeback. She's down, but certainly not out at this point.


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Rating: 3.7/5 (3 votes cast)


Comments (9)

Lee Ward:

I love the "over the top" rhetoric of the Obama supporters.

"Reeling after five losses" - and Steve's contention in an earlier post that the campaign is in a "panic".

The results of the races this last weekend were well-known and predicted in advance. It's such a non-news event that its become necessary to spin it as a "stunning defeat" that fills the Clinton campaign with "panic". Lol


ryan a:

The question, to me, is how the Dems are going to handle all of this. Are they going to allow this contest to tear them up, or will they find a way to compete without completely destroying any semblance of internal cohesion?

At times it seems like this whole Clinton/Obama thing could lead to such severe divisions in the Dem party that it could ultimately hurt the presidential bid. But maybe not. Maybe most Dems will come together after all this...who knows.

There's still a long way to go. At least it's a lot more encouraging than the broken down bid that Kerry put up four years ago...

Lee Ward:

"At times it seems like this whole Clinton/Obama thing could lead to such severe divisions in the Dem party that it could ultimately hurt the presidential bid."

How? I don't see who the Democratic constituency is that would stay from either Obama or Clinton as a result.

But maybe not. Maybe most Dems will come together after all this...who knows.

I suspect they will. We have a common goal, to prevent McCain from gaining office. Not every Obama supporter has that as a goal, but the number who don't is so small I don't think they'll prevent Clinton from winning if she's the nominee.

and if me calling those swing voters who would vote for McCain as "inconsequential" and not part of the Democratic "whole" that matters bothers anyone - it's their willingness to vote for McCain over Clinton that excludes them from the Democratic fold - not my opinion of them...

mantis:

The results of the races this last weekend were well-known and predicted in advance. It's such a non-news event that its become necessary to spin it as a "stunning defeat" that fills the Clinton campaign with "panic". Lol

Amusing that voters who may very well exist only in your imagination (voting for Obama in the primary, but McCain in the general) are "significant," but the votes of Democratic primary voters in four states, two of which were closed contests, are a non-news event.

The spin is all yours, Lee.

ryan a:

How? I don't see who the Democratic constituency is that would stay from either Obama or Clinton as a result.

Well, if Hillary and Obama spend millions of dollars during the next few months trashing one another, I could see that being detrimental to the overall goal of the Democratic party. It seems to me that a highly critical contest could change the minds of some of those all-important middle of the road folks.

But that depends on how Clinton and Obama decide to go about this whole thing, since there is something called constructive debate that I think could actually be beneficial.

In a certain way, they are going to have to counter McCain, who is going to be attacking the Democrats as a whole. I think that the Repubs made a pretty smart tactical move overall, and if it works it could be a thorn in the side of the Democrats. The Republicans KNEW they were fractured, so many of them decided to close ranks around McCain sooner than later, so that they could start with the democrat bashing. We'll see how that works out though...

Tomas:

Was South Carolina a caucus???????

Lee Ward:

South Carolina had highly-atypical demographics, with over 50% of the voting population African-Americans.

mantis:

That is the standard line of the Clinton camp: dismiss all wins by the opponent as either due to a lot of black voters or that they were caucuses.

Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, and Louisiana? Too many black folk, those don't count. Iowa, Alaska, Minnesota, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, Washington, Maine and North Dakota? Caucuses, those don't count either. Illinois? Hometown advantage, doesn't count.

Connecticut, Delaware, Missouri, and Utah? Der, ummm, well, uhhh, those are anomalies because, well, err......

Expect much of the same this week and next. Obama will win the Potomac three because they're heavily black, so those won't count, and he'll win Hawaii because he was born there, so it doesn't count. If Obama wins Wisconsin? Well, umm, it's cold up there or something! Doesn't count!

I don't really blame the Clinton camp for this, btw. They've got to say something, and what else than try to minimize their opponent's gains. I do wonder how they think it will help them to dismiss so much of the American electorate as unimportant, though.

Lee Ward:

"That is the standard line of the Clinton camp: dismiss all wins by the opponent as either due to a lot of black voters or that they were caucuses."

There you go again, changing the subject so you can argue against a strawman. I didn't say anything about these wins being caucuses or black voter-factored. All I said was the results were highly predicted, and therefore a non-news snoozer of an event.

Did you fall down and hit your head recently?

Florida was a snoozer for the same reason, and the Potomac races are pretty much set as well - don't expect any surprises there.

ZZZzzzzzzzz.....


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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