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Will Hillary Quit After Tomorrow or Not?

UPDATE: Clinton underscores Obama's 15 moths of inaction on his responsibilities in her latest ad. It seems that Barack has been too busy feeding his ego to actually DO something:

I am in the camp that says Clinton will continue to the convention, and will not withdraw from the race before then.

I read a report this last weekend that quoted Florida Governor Crist as saying he was open to the idea of holding the Florida Democratic primary over again, which is something both Clinton and Obama supporters have been calling for - and maybe the same can be done in Michigan.

In addition, the Clinton camp is now casting Hillary's choice to stay in as a viable option if Obama loses any of the four primaries held tomorrow - Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont. Their reasoning is that if Obama loses any one of those four primaries it's an indication that momentum is turning away from Obama - since he has 11 straight wins since Super Tuesday.

And Hillary had this to say:

Hillary Clinton told reporters Monday she is "just getting warmed up" as she campaigned through Ohio and Texas on the eve of primaries that could determine the outcome of the Democratic race for president.

"I think I know what's happening and I believe we're going to do well," she told reporters before a rally in Toldeo, Ohio. When asked how she would "measure success" from the outcome of tomorrow's contests Clinton replied "winning, winning, winning, that's my measure of success."

Clinton said she would take her message on to "Pennsylvania and states ahead," a proclamation neither she nor her aides have made much since Senator Barack Obama won 11 February contests in a row.

That's a slightly different tune from what we've been hearing. I suspect that the Clinton campaign's internal polling shows some slippage for Obama, and I sense the same shift. Either Obama's momentum has turned or it's slowed dramatically in the last week.

Obama's actual performance versus the poll predictions will be a better measure, and we'll start to see those results in about 24 hours.

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Rating: 3.8/5 (5 votes cast)

Comments (13)

Steve Crickmore:

A firewall in Rhode Island?...A last minute surge looks like she will do better than that and take Ohio and make Texas close..The race is still on and the manoeuvring in Florida and Michigan may be the key for her.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

No question Obama would do far better in Florida than he did in January, and if either candidate can settle this before the convention it's the best thing for all concerned.

Steve Crickmore:

I agree, currently Obama has about 11O delegate and superdelegate lead..Clinton has 16 delegate lead if you include her 126 superdelegate and delegate advantage in Florida and Michigan..I have a feeling today's primaries won't change things much. Clinton is probably counting on a 20% chance of reversing the DNC rules committee and reinstating her Florida and Michigan delegate advantage in August..I agree it will lead a bad taste in everyone's mouth if this happens or the reverse, if this was the reason that Hillary was denied the nomination if the original decison is upheld.

I think Obama should go ahead and plead to redo the new primaries but I understand that Carl Lewin the Michigan senator and Clinton supporter who was behind the origianal move to advance the Michigan primary in January, said he and the Michigan state Democrats will not agree to do Michigan's over again. Hillary may think her chances are better going for the 20% chance of getting the M/F delegations now constituted sitting than having let's say only a 20 to 30 delegate advantage from the two primaries, if the primaries are redone.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

Levin is a Clinton supporter? Did you get that from Rush Limbaugh, Steve?

I'm pretty sure Levin's neutral - he hasn't endorsed or "supported" anyone.

Lee Ward:

Please share the secret intelligence gathered by the Obama campaign that suggests Levin is in cahoots with Clinton, Steve.

I found this

Levin maintained his neutrality in the race between Obama and Clinton. I asked him what it was like to work with Obama in the Congress and how he expected Obama to work with the Congress if elected. Levin responded by saying that he had to be "very careful" in answering the question. He noted that he was confident that he and the Congress would be able to work with either Obama or Clinton. Levin said that, ultimately, he would back the candidate who had "the best chance to win" in the Fall.

...but no doubt Barack Obama's campaign has the real skinny on the collusion you suggests exists between Clinton and Levin with regards to the Michigan primary, so please share it with us Steve.

Steve Crickmore:

Senator Levin wants the 77 Michigan delegates who voted for Hillary to be seated at the Convention and the 0 delegates for Obama..plus the 55 uncomitted Michigan delegates plus the Florida 40 delegate advantage for Hillary...He seems about as neutral as 'neutral' Franco was between the Allies and Axis powers during WW2. Sometimes when you are neutral like Franco you can do a lot more for your side than you can if you declare yourself.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

Zero for Obama - not correct. The following is from your own link, Steve.

Michigan's Jan. 15 primary, in which Obama did not compete, would give Clinton 73 delegates, with 55 uncommitted delegates that probably will side mostly with Obama.

That's the proposal that Levin is supporting.

As I recall, back when the Michigan primary ran wasn't Levin encouraging voters who didn't favor Clinton to vote uncommitted rather than not vote at all?

Regardless, the proposal supported by Levin does not give zero delegates to Obama, who clearly made a bonehead move by voluntarily withdrawing his name from the ballot.

Steve Crickmore:

Lee,iIt may not be so much Levin who may see himself as neutral- but on researching this more it was other party bigwigs (leaning to Clinton) who pushed the proposal to move Michigan's primary forward, spearheaded by Mark Brewer, chairman of the Michigan Democratic Committee, and Governor Jennifer Granholm...

The decision by the state legislature to push elections in front of the prohibitive national party requirements--and foisted upon state party leaders... "Governor Granholm" is partially to blame for this fiasco," Schuttler says. "Notice that the day after Hillary said she would remain on Michigan's ballot, Granholm endorsed her. She claims this is because Hillary, by staying on the ballot, is supporting Michigan's causes. But if this is so true, why hasn't Hillary visited Michigan since the primary season began?"

Schuttler (an unabashed Obama supporter) concluded: "She [Granholm] and the legislature are both well aware of DNC rules, as well as the consequences for breaking them. They effectively gambled away the voices of millions of Michigan Democrats. The Michigan Legislature and Governor Granholm both have blood on their hands in this matter." (Some speculate that Granholm has her eyes on the Attorney General post if Clinton wins the White House.)

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

Barack never should have withdrawn his name from the ballot - but since he made that choice - if it turns out to be a bad choice he should be an adult and live with the results of his decision.

John S:

Sounds like the Clintons have already handed the general election to McCain. The only drama is whether they will lose 40 states like Dukakis or 49 states like McGovern.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

I'm glad you Republicans are convinced of that, John. The most recent head-to-head polls show that Obama does not fare well against McCain, and although Clinton doesn't either at this point she's a fighter, not a talker, and she'll take the fight to the GOP all the way until the polls close on November 8.

Obambi just isn't ready for prime-time, but give him 4 more years in the Senate and, if he actually gets off his ass and does something productive instead of just running for office, he could be a force in 2012.

John S:

I can't see Hillary making any progress against even the dreary John McCain. More than 50 percent of voters will not vote for her. So unless she can win with 43% of the vote (like Bill in 1992) she won't win.

On the plus side, Lee, assuming a McCain victory, the Republicans would catch full (and proper) blame for the hyperinflationary depression that's coming. Hate to see another Democrat blamed for that -- like the hapless Jimmy Carter, who caught hell for Richard Nixon's economic policies.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

If there is one thing we learned last night, John, it's that change Does happen when you least expect it.

Clinton stopped Obama cold, and just one week ago that seemed to be a long shot judging from the polls.

So you can't count on the polls today that say Clinton can't beat McCain. A lot can happen in the 8 months between now and election day.


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Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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