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Obama's Success: Is it a Black Thing?

There's no question that Obama enjoys the overwhelming support of Black Americans, and there is evidence to show that he owes his current frontrunner status to that support:

dem-graph.PNG

Note that this graph is based on data gathered by Gallup Feb. 25 - March 2, prior to last Tuesday's primaries where we saw a lot of Hispanic last minute decision-makers move in to Clinton's camp, and we also saw a surprising decrease in black voter turnout in Texas, so today's results may differ from last week's results.

An analysis of almost 3,000 interviews conducted over the last week with national Democratic voters highlights the degree to which Obama has been able to secure the support of black Democrats, while Clinton, his major opponent, has held on to her edge among white and Hispanic Democratic voters.

The interviews were conducted as part of Gallup Poll Daily election tracking between Feb. 25 and March 2. During this period, Obama had an overall 48% to 43% lead over Clinton among all Democratic voters nationwide (in the latest three-day average of interviews conducted March 1-3, the candidates are tied at 45%). But the detailed analysis shows much wider differences in support for the two leading Democratic candidates within major racial and ethnic subgroups.

Obama had a substantial lead among non-Hispanic black Democratic voters -- 76% to 17% -- in the Feb. 25- March 2 sample. Blacks comprise about 19% of the Democratic voters surveyed across this period.

At the same time, Clinton had a 50% to 41% lead among non-Hispanic whites in the sample. Whites -- about two-thirds of the Democratic voters in the sample -- comprise by far the largest racial or ethnic segment of the Democratic electorate.

Over this seven-day period, Clinton also had a substantial lead among white Hispanic voters, 55% to 39%. An analysis of Clinton's support among Hispanic Democratic voters this year shows that while there have been week-to-week fluctuations, she has generally led each week. (White Hispanics comprise about 6% of the national Democratic vote, based on the data from Feb. 25 -- March 2.)

I'll watch for updates on these data points by Gallup and post the results if there is a change in the trend following last Tuesday's primaries.


Note: Wizbang Blue is now closed and our authors have moved on. Paul Hooson can now be found at Wizbang Pop!. Please come see him there!

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Comments (1)

realitygirl 2:

Obama is a very universal candidate unlike Hillary Clinton. She has a lot of devious tricks to play one group of people against another group of people. She now claims Barack can be on her ticket only to get more of the black vote. She does not like anyone who is unlike her. Her hatred "transcends" race as well as the hatred of Bill Clinton. I wish that she would just go away and never run for any public office again. Of course she would lose her pensions if she drops out of a race which offers a good pension plan unlike the people she pretended to represent in Ohio.


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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