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New Polls Show Clinton's Strength

Just a quick blurb on new polling data released today in three key swing states. Hillary is the key:

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a 50 - 41 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters and runs better against Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 53 - 41 percent lead in a March 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University. In general election match ups of the three largest and most important swing states in the Electoral College, the survey finds.

  • Florida: Clinton 44 percent - McCain 42 percent; McCain beats Obama 46 - 37 percent;
  • Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 39 percent; Obama gets 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent;
  • Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 40 percent; Obama leads McCain 43 - 39 percent.

Clearly Clinton is the key to winning these critical states.

The primary vote between Obama and Clinton splits sharply along racial lines, with her advantage coming from stronger support in every contest from white voters. For example, Clinton leads 59 - 34 percent among white Pennsylvania likely primary voters, while Obama leads 73 - 11 percent among black Democrats.

"When it comes to November, Sen. Hillary Clinton's strength is a big edge over Sen. Barack Obama among white voters, who have not given a majority of their votes to a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute."

No wonder Obama wanted her to quit.

Meanwhile, Howard Dean is busily trying to find a way to seat Florida's delegation, trying desperately to mend the damage done by Obama in blocking a Florida do-over - and for good reason.

Bill Nelson, Florida's Democratic senator, has said the Democrats can kiss Florida goodbye in November, if Democrats are "disenfranchised'' at the nominating convention.

Clinton has been the prime push behind getting the Florida delegation seated, while the Obama campaign did everything they could to write them off.

Update: Obama, who just four days ago was enjoying a 10 point lead over Clinton in the rolling, three-day Gallup poll, has seen that lead shrink to just three points in the matter of just a few days.

20080402_gallup.png

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Comments (1)

Steve Crickmore:

The Quinnipac University poll was conducted frm March 24 - 31, much of it before Obama received his endorsement from Casey and started his bus tour of Pennsylvania and probably the full blitz of his tv ads was felt.

A newer poll, taken March 31 to April 1st, in the last three days, by the Public Policy Polling has Obama up by two percent over Clinton in Pennsylvania..Two weeks ago during the height of Rev. Wright controversy the same polling company had Clinton up by 26 points. This company says they were the most accurate of all the polls in the Wisconsin, South Carolina, Ohio and Texas primaries.


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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