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New Analysis has Obama Leading McCain 353 -185 in Electoral Votes

One of the best election analysis sites has to be Scott Elliot's ELECTION PROJECTION. And his latest analysis of the likely electoral vote breakdown has Senator Obama leading John McCain by crushing total of 353 to 185, far exceeding the 270 electoral votes needed for election.

Thurday's night's vice presidential debate is unlikely to help McCain very much even though Sarah Palin had a stronger than expected performance as most debate viewers still viewed Senator Biden as the winner of the debate and far more presidential. This is only likely to continue the Obama momentum towards a building electoral vote landslide and a strong and growing popular vote. More and more Senator Obama is viewed as both presidential and the likely winner by a growing number of voters.

McCain's only best hopes to turn around his shrinking presidential hopes seem to be in strong debate performances in the final two debates. But likely McCain's strongest opportunity was in the first debate with such heavy foreign policy content, and Senator Obama was able to hold up well enough with many voters as well as to clearly win the economic policy portion of the debate that McCain's best hope has probably already since passed away. Senator Obama only had to prove that he had a decent grasp of foreign policy and could be a credible choice, and certainly managed that in the debate.

Up until recently, the only state that John Kerry won in 2004 that Obama might have lost was New Hampshire. But new polls place this state over in Obama's column. In Addition, Obama is ahead in Iowa and New Mexico, two states that John Kerry lost in 2004, but Al Gore won in 2000.

But what is disastrous to McCain's fainting hopes of winning this election is that Senator Obama has a growing hope of winning in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada and Ohio. Since 1964, Ohio has always voted for the winning presidential candidate, making it a true weathervane state.

What is probably most troubling to McCain is that his margin is way down is some reliability Republican leaning states like Indiana where McCain is barely running ahead. Missouri is another state on the bubble where McCain is only hanging on to a slender lead. Even in tiny normally Republican leaning states like Montana, McCain only has single digit leads, as is just barely hanging on to hopes of not losing the election by a massive electoral vote landslide where states that supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 abandon McCain in 2008.

The McCain Campaign will be hard pressed to spend money in a number of normally safe Republican strongholds just to hang on to those states. At the same time the Obama Campaign has the luxury to spend $40 million in attempts to win to take Florida, as well as to challenge in a number of stronger more traditionally Republican bases such as Virginia and Colorado. And any loss by McCain in North Carolina would only add to an election day electoral vote disaster. McCain needs a solid South to win the election, and the loss of either Virginia or North Carolina probably puts the White House out of reach for McCain. McCain simply cannot win the election if both Virginia and North Carolina slip away from him. There simply is not the electoral votes somewhere else to make up for that loss.

No doubt about it, the McCain Campaign is facing a rising tide of bad news. Sagging poll numbers, must win states slipping away, and a growing voter consensus that Barack Obama would make a better president than McCain. Unless something real unexpected develops to boost McCain, and soon, his hopes of being elected president in November are quickly fading away and turning into dust.


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Comments (6)

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

North Carolina may end up being a key battleground -- a state which went for Bush by 12% in both 2000 and 2004 - and now it's neck to neck. That's an amazing turn of events.

And Palin is cheerleading an effort to stay and fight in Michigan after McCain announced two days ago that they were pulling their campaign efforts out of Michigan -- which shows that Sarah is not in the loop on these decisions or she would have voiced her concern before the pullout decision was announced.

McCain's only best hopes to turn around his shrinking presidential hopes seem to be in strong debate performances in the final two debates.

Under pressure, there is an even greater likelihood that McCain will let his anger surface. Hooyah! That would be a show. McCain all lathered up and roaring. It's the reason his handlers put him in a blue shirt in the last debate -- to visually "cool off" McCain the hothead.

It's getting interesting....

Allen:

Don't count your chickens before they hatch, as you seemed to forget about the Diebolt voting machines, voters being dismissed from registered lists, etc.

This crap is happening in a bunch of states, and the GOP is behind it all. In fact, the GOP in AK has petitioned the Supreme court to stop the Trooper gate investigation.

If the pig in lipstick has nothing to hide (same as Bush), why not bring it out to the public view? Sounds fishy to me.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

My best guess is that the Alaska appeal won't stop the investigation from completing as planned.

Republicans can always try to steal the election, that's true....

J. Carpenter:

I have been involved in statistical analysis since the first Apollo space missions (Mission Assurance) which in part dealt with the estimated the risk of space systems to the general public on ascent and reentry.

I have also been involved in probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) by NASA for the space shuttle program and the on-going development of the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) software used by NASA.

One eventually develops and intuitive sense when the data, no matter how exactingly collected, seems very wrong.

A few days ago I began to suspect that across the board polling data published by the major polling organizations was fatally flawed. Based on this assumption I predicted McCain would abandon the chase for the swing voter and attempt to shore up the base while Obama would continue the hunt.

Less than 48 hours later, McCain abandoned (at least for the present) Michigan.

I have little doubt that pollsters either knowingly or ignorantly employing a flawed model of demographics and that polls available to the public (as opposed to the polls used by the candidates) may be off by as much as 6-10 points, biased towards democrats.

The measure of a theory's validity is its predictive ability.

This race is much closer than many realize.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

"I have little doubt that pollsters either knowingly or ignorantly employing a flawed model of demographics and that polls available to the public (as opposed to the polls used by the candidates) may be off by as much as 6-10 points, biased towards democrats."

If the public polls are flawed (intentionally or otherwise) and the campaign's polls are not, why did the McCain campaign pull out of Michigan?

Obviously McCain's polls are in-sync with the public polls. McCain's internal polling must agree with the public polls pointing to an Obama surge in Michigan.

I respect your experience, Mr/Ms Carpenter, but not your fact-less, link-less, analysis-free "intuition" that the polls are lying and the pollster are liars. Feel free to include some facts to back up this hunch of yours.

J. Carpenter, your comments and qualifications are pretty good here. I do believe that some polls may be problematic or biased in favor of Democrats as well, so I tend to trust both the Rasmussen and Election Projection analysis the most because Republicans are given higher weight in both for various reasons.

One poll last week had Obama ahead by 15 points in Pennsylvania which didn't sound right to me. But Rasmussen has the range between a 3-8point Obama lead range which sure sounds better to me.

Another major factor is the race factor. Often African American candidates tend to show up better in the pre-election polls than the actual election day results. Internally, the Obama Campaign is concerned about this I've heard from one source so they believe that they need to be up to at least 48% in pre-election polls, otherwise they fear that they will lose, that undecideds could break 70% in favor of McCain. And this likely would include a large number of White voters who might be more hesitant to support Obama even if they basically like him.

On the other hand, the fact that the McCain Campaign is giving up on Michigan is a sign of reality that they are attempting to save funds for critical states that they need to capture like a solid South, where the loss of either Virginia or North Carolina will probably spell a general election loss because there are not any more electoral votes out there to replace these critical states because the pool of states that Bush carried in 2000 and 2004 cannot shrink by very much and still allow McCain to win. Only in New Hampshire does McCain have any hope to capture a state won by both Gore and Kerry, otherwise Obama is very close or ahead in a few critical states that Bush carried twice to give the McCain Campaign a major worry.

If Obama should lose if polls have him still ahead by a significant amount on election day, then there will lots of serious statistical analysis for a long time for polling organizations to look into what went wrong with their polling methodology. The miscall of 1948 for Dewey had some serious polling sample problems and yielded a flawed result compared to the actual vote. But any flaw in the current model with Obama and McCain may be more complicated than a mere flawed polling pool sample because of the unknown racial factor.

I studied statistics in college, but I never went into this field of study as deeply as you did, J. Carpenter, so I deeply appreciate your comments here all through the election on this topic to add a professional opinion to this subject. Thanks so much for comments here today.


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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