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Erratic Polls Indicate Don't Measure For The White House Drapes Just Yet.

Earlier in the week some pretty strong polling numbers sure looked strong for Barack Obama, but then even with another losing debate performance on Wednesday evening by John McCain and continued economic problems, some other polling organization numbers now show a shocking trend of the race tightening once again, with Rasmussen now indicating John McCain only 4 points behind and gaining a few points over the last few days. Even more shocking is one Gallup poll this week that had Obama only leading by a mere 3 points when a poll of likely voters was considered.

The fact of the matter may be that a number of Republican ads running around the country may be selling a misleading message to voters that their taxes will rise if the Democrats are elected even though the Obama Campaign has only proposed a modest small tax increase of just 3% on those earning in excess of $250,000 a year to restore some tax fairness which is also only a return to the same tax levels for higher income earners of 39% during the Clinton economic boom years in the 1990's.

The current tax percentage is 36% on incomes over $250,000. However, the Obama plan still offers higher income earners new opportunities for tax credits and breaks if they will hire new employees or keep jobs in the U.S. So ample opportunity to shield income from higher taxes is also built into the Obama plans that did not exist in the Clinton years.

Surprisingly, Republicans could pull still this election out even with all the baggage of George Bush and a serious economic crisis if Democratic turnout is lower than expected, or if too many voters expect Obama to win and don't bother to vote. It is certainly possible that some of the reporting from CNN may have overstated any slight Obama advantage right now, and this could make some voters feel that their votes may not count.

In fact, every vote might well count, and this election may tighten to a near tie by election day. Even after strong debate performances, the Obama numbers seem to soften up after a few days and the race tightens each time. McCain unfortunately has more than enough days left in this election cycle to still pull out a win based on the past history of the polls. Even if the race tightens by one point every two days. that is unfortunately more than enough time for McCain to pull even and win.

By all means this should be an election that the Republicans should lose. 8 years of George Bush and all the serious economic news should be a shocking wake-up call to voters to change direction. But they may not. McCain still could win and Republican candidates still have the potential to do far better than expected in congressional and other races. In fact, the latest Gallup poll out just today indicates a narrow Democratic advantage for congressional candidates of just 51-45%, which hardly proves any American electorate tidal wave of support in favor of change despite shocking and historically awful conditions with the economy. This close number is indeed a surprising statistic.

While the McCain campaign seems awful in every regard, including the lack of a clear central message, screwball issues like Bill Ayers instead of clearly addressing the economy concerns of voters, a questionable vice presidential choice, and a candidate both old and somewhat erratic at times, there is still the strong possibility this simply awful campaign could still pull out an election victory.

In the end, it is also not known whether there is a still something known as the "Bradley effect" as well. African American candidate Tom Bradley was clearly ahead in public opinion polls in the governor's race in California in 1982, but then surprisingly lost the election. Pollsters were dumbfounded how many voters would mislead the pollsters which candidate that they actually supported and then voted against the African American candidate for reasons apparently no better than that of race. It was a shocking result that really disappointed many on how race relations still lag in the U.S. It is also a huge unknown equation in the this presidential race as well.

Could a candidate as good as Barack Obama still lose the election after winning every debate, acting more presidential than John McCain, having clear issues and campaign messages, more campaign money to spend, and a far superior campaign organization as well as leading poll numbers. If the McCain Campaign wins despite all these factors it will be a shocking message to not only this nation, but the world community at large that even a superior effort by an African American is simply not good enough yet in a nation with lagging social advancement on race issues.

Mr. Obama seeks to judged on the basis of his character and his talents, yet it will be very disappointing if it appears that race still matters more over these other traits thought important for an effective president. The election needs to appear as fair no matter who wins. Any sense of any standard any less than this will be very destructive to the already tarnished world image of the U.S.

The world image of the U.S. has already taken a huge hit under George Bush. Even Russia is viewing the U.S. as largely an irrelevant world power and has sent out signals that it wishes more direct relations with Europe instead. And the current economic crisis, largely viewed as a problem of the U.S. that has impacted the larger world economy has not been very helpful to the American world image on top of the frictions of an unpopular Bush foreign policy.

Indeed, this election should stand as real watershed that indicates a strong voter preference for a change of direction. But it may not be.

Ohio has chosen the winner in every presidential election since 1964 and one new poll from Rasmussen has this state now tied between Obama and McCain. This is very significant because the actual vote from Ohio often reflects the real national vote percentages very closely. If the current opinion polls from Ohio have this election tied, then it very well may be nationally as well despite perceptions of Obama as the clear front-runner by many in the public and media. If this isn't a wake-up call for high voter turnout for change, then I don't know what is. After 8 years of George Bush, and all the problems it has brought, voters may actually choose more of the same with John McCain. Believe it or not.


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Comments (6)

Phi:

Hi Paul,

You are biased toward Barack Obama. If G. Bush has been this bad for 8 years, he would not be reelected in the second term. I agreed that G. Bush economy policy has only been bad for the last 2 months . Before that, house owners felt they are so rich that everyone wants to borrow a lot of money to invest in a house. We as citizen should also take responsibilities of our own risk, not just blame the economy entirely on the banks and Bush government.

I tend to prefer strong foreign policy to deal with terrorist and communism. A weak policy with North Korea, Cuba, Russia, Iran, and etc... certainly can please them and they can despise USA. I like to use tough discipline to teach my children but other people like you prefer sweet talk to persuade people.


There is nothing wrong with what you said because it is an opinion, not a fact.

Phi, certainly I have a bias towards Obama which is fairly clear. I believe that he has a destiny as a great president, myself.

The problem with foreign policy towards each different state of the 194 other nations in the world is that each requires a different foreign policy.

For example, Russia is not really a democracy in any real sense, but has a large oil based economy and significant relations with the U.S. in a common international space program and other areas as well. A major Russian steel company recently purchased a large Oregon steel company for example. So Russia's recently strongarm military action in Georgia needs to be held in some perspective. Russia also has at least 5,518 nuclear warheads as well, as well as a more reliable space vehicle program, so it is clear that the U.S. cannot allow relations with Russia to so badly worsen to the point of ever having a nuclear war with this state. Both Russia and the U.S. need a respectful relation that doesn't have fireworks over differences, but tactfully presents them.

North Korea is a different case. This little country wants respect from the U.S. despite often outrageous behavior. But some small actions by the U.S. such as removing it from the list of terrorist nations has resulted in their efforts to dismantle their nuclear program.

Iran is a whole different case. The U.S. had a long history of support for the Shah of Iran that started around the second World War II. Often this king of Iran treated his own people with extreme cruelty, which has resulted in decades of antiAmerican anger. This antiAmerican anger still continues today since the 1979 revolution, but the U.S. has missed some opportunities to improve relations with this angry state. Iran is a large country, and any military conflict there would require millions of American soldiers and would be far worse than Iraq by far. Improving relations with this country while preventing a nuclear threat to little Israel should be an important priority. Our foreign policy needs to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and prevent a regional arms race in the Mideast.

Cuba is yet another story. Castro promised free elections six months after coming to power, but so far that hasn't happened. And Castro has ruined the Cuban economy by hurting the American tourist business and jailing those who disagree with him. This government needs to become pragmatic like the Chinese and Vietnamese Communist governments who want both good relations and trade with the U.S. Cuba is simply not a pragmatic regime. It never should have started bad relations with the U.S., which is too important to their economy. At some point, the top leadership of this nation needs to retire or resign and allow more pragmatic leadership to open the door to better relations with the U.S.

So every case is different and requires a smart foreign policy, not just some tough one.

Phi:

Hi Paul,

I can understand why you like Barak Obama especially when it comes to foreign policy.

I felt humiliated when Iran took over US embassy and Carter did not handle the situation properly. Osama B. Laden has been a terrorist threat for a long time and Bill Clinton did not take hjm seriuosly. N. Korea just wants USA dollar and Bill Clinton gave them money to persuade them from making nuclear bomb. When USA stop giving them aid, they go back to making bomb again. We probably would want to stay out of World War II had Japan did not attack us.

I felt proud of Ronald Reagan for the fall of communism. J F Kennedy did an excellent in the Cuba crisis and I agreed with you that Russia is the only country that is difficult to deal with. If the next President is not careful, Russia will go back to communism or dictatorship. Yes I think that the Iranians and Venezuala like to see Barak Obama winning the election too.

William:

Lets not forget McCain hired his White House Transition Team months ago. You remember the one, lobbyist with ties to Saddam Hussein?

Phi, I am one of those kool-aid drinking Republican's that voted for Bush not once but twice because as they like to call me (the voters they appeal to the most) I was a "low-information" or "uneducated voter". The first time I voted for Bush I beleived in my vote the second time I wanted him to fix the mess he made of this country. You know "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me." This election season I watched every debate, read the policies, fact-checked the issues and made a very educated and informed decision. I changed my registration to Democrat during the primary season and began campaigning for Obama. Remember the smear tactics and robo calls Bush and his cronies made in 2000 to make us all very afraid of John McCain? John McCain is using these same smear, fear, hate, and race mongering tactics to try to do the same to Obama. I hope the voter's say enough of this divisive style of politics with their votes.

kadee:

I can respect anyone who wants to support there party but who my party puts for me to support has a lot to do with it.Remember Palin Mcain said they are a team of mavericks who will fix our issues..... People Mcain and his group are Bushe's team of mavericks that lead us here... I have real concerns about how the candiate appear under pressure and even when not under pressure Mcain does not seem at his best... I can tell u I had a strong dislike for this man and I dont know him .My dislike grew when I saw him in debates trying to make outrageous accusations....he should have been telling us about his plans with eloquence. trust me asking the media to look into another candiate... Pleaseeee are you trying to say there are only democratic media personell out there.. We can also Question Mcains associations...there are people in his past with question.. I can get into names... but my simple point is wether democrat or republican Obama seems to be under great control... I must admit I have change my dislike for Mcain.. only after I saw another side of him at the dinner on thursday... I was blown away another side of him that seems relaxed and normal... I think we must all take into consideration majority of us liked this man years ago when he ran for office... but his outward look has changed since then.. so while he may not be a bad person they or his campaing has not handle his appearance.... If more americans saw him at this dinner Im shure they would have a much better outlook of him...I dont think he is the best for the country right now too rigid... its not allways go left or right some time we have to go left or wright, rite or write did i miss one

Heather:

Obama lovers you are so in denial. I too voted for Bush twice and felt fooled the second time. (I voted for Clinton earlier so I'm not a complete conservative). I too have followed nearly every word the two of our new candidates have spoken and I can't believe everyone is falling for Obama. Of course, Obama has been able to buy his campaign which truly helps ... thanks to the liberal media (nearly every channel but Fox) and his rich celebrity friends. But even Biden consistently delivers the message of how he's not ready.

http://sweetness-light.com/archive/biden-obama-will-be-tested-immediately

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpjAs4vtc1w

I think so many people want to believe in change that they're willing to "risk" our nation at this very vulnerable time with a guy who is basically an empty suit with lots of bright ideas that are just not practical. Socialism (even the slightest move towards it) will ruin our country. We've already begun with our banks, then Obama wants a more socialized healthcare system. Wen does it stop? We don't need any more government. And I sure as hell don't like the idea of "spreading the wealth." What will happen to the incentive to succeed in this nation? When people lose their incentive, jobs are lost. They will be lost because ordinary small business people will not want to be put in that tax bracket. This will result in less hiring. It will be a widespread problem not just one among 5% or 10% or whatever Obama is saying this week.

When we are "tested" again, as Biden suggests, who would you rather have defending us? The complete liberal with the radical friends (not just Ayers but Wright and Farrakhan too. You know, people that hate America.) that wants to disarm America? He wants to leave us even more vulnerable.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU4sVQV3Lhk

Or the war hero? I'll take the war hero any day.
He has already been tested.

Also, for all of you who blame "race" and talk about the Bradley effect...This election will be one of reverse racism (maybe it's deserved if you are one that believes we owe blacks). True there are still a few bumpkins out there that won't vote for a black person. And that's embarrassing. But do you know a single black person that is voting for McCain? I doubt it. Even Powell crossed over after 30 years of conservative views. Doubt that's a coincidence either. Lets not forget it was Powell that put us in the Iraq war. That goes against everything Obama stands for. Now Obama wants him to "advise" him on foreign policy? Geez. Then there is ACORN and if you listen to this, it should make you a little sick.

http://www.bpmdeejays.com/upload/hs_sal_in_Harlem_100108.mp3

We're getting close here people. Please snap out of it before "the great one" is chosen and lets us all down (again, using Biden's words).


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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