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The Next President of the United States

Obama_seal_shirt_cu_300.gifA t-shirt company is selling a prophetic t-shirt with the image of Barack Obama within the presidential seal with the logo, "The Next President of the United States", and they are of course on track. Mr. Obama is highly likely to win the electoral college by a 353 to 185 margin over John McCain on Tuesday. The only real surprises would be if Mr. Obama would also manage narrow wins in both Indiana and Missouri by a few hundred or thousand votes, in which case the electoral vote total would be 375 to 163 in Mr. Obama's favor.

Some have become distracted with looking at the daily expected popular vote polls. However, it is the electoral college that elects a president, and enough tracking polls in all states put a clear leader ahead in most cases to pretty well project exactly where this race is headed.

On Tuesday at 7pm Eastern time, when the polls close in Georgia, Virginia and Indiana -- and Mr. Obama wins in Virginia, is nearly even in Indiana and only trails slightly in Georgia -- it should be pretty clear to any realist in the McCain Campaign that this election is over. All three states indicate a level of GOP voter erosion over the previous healthy margins that George Bush won twice in 2000 and 2004, and that John McCain has lost this election, but he will likely wait some time for other states to vote before conceding, such as his home state of Arizona, which McCain is likely to only narrowly hang on to like Barry Goldwater was just barely able to hang on to in 1964 by a bare 4,780 vote margin over Lyndon Johnson.

By 7:30pm Eastern time, when both "Red" states Ohio and North Carolina fall to Mr. Obama, it should be absolutely clear to any "Doubting Thomas" within the McCain Campaign organization that this election is absolutely over and no miracle McCain strategy of counting on a Pennsylvania surprise is going to rescue McCain from defeat. This thing is over, Done. Put a fork in it.

Baring any electoral miracle greater than raising the dead by Tuesday, the state by state breakdown should be as follows.

Very Close for McCain (but Obama could win by by a slender margin): Indiana and Missouri, 11 electoral votes each.

Narrowly for McCain: Arizona 10, Montana 3, Georgia 15 and North Dakota 3

Modest McCain leads: Arkansas 6, Mississippi 6, South Dakota 3, West Virginia 5

Strong McCain Leads: Kansas 6, Kentucky 8, Louisiana 9, South Carolina 8, Tennessee 11, Texas 34

Big McCain leads: Alabama 9. Alaska 3, Idaho 4, Nebraska 5, Oklahoma 7, Utah 5, Wyoming 3

Narrow Obama leads: Florida 27, Nevada 5, North Carolina 15

Modest Obama Leads: Colorado 9, New Hampshire 4, New Mexico 5, Ohio 20, Virginia 13

Strong Obama Leads: Iowa 9, Minnesota 10, Oregon 7, Pennsylvania 21, Wisconsin 10

Big Obama Leads: California 55, Connecticut 7, D.C. 3, Delaware 3, Hawaii 4, Illinois 21, Maine 4, Maryland 10, Massachusetts 12, Michigan 17, New Jersey 17, New York 31, Rhode Island 4, Vermont 3, Washington 11

So about the biggest drama might be whether John McCain can barely hang on to Missouri and Indiana, or whether states both will get swept up in the Obama electoral sweep. You can also expect Mr. Obama to garner about 53% of the vote compared to John McCain's 45%, with Ralph Nader or others likely splitting the rest of the vote.

Democrats will also pick up seats in the senate, however are likely to fall below the magic 60 margin they would like, but holding a big 57-58 seat majority. In the house, Democrats may pick up 22 seats, and hold a strong 258-177 majority.

I also expect Mr. Obama to attempt to rule the country from the center politically and attempt to pull the country together and be an inspirational president that will challenge this nation to believe in goals and be similar to John Kennedy in many ways.

In fact, much of the opposition to Mr. Obama in Congress and elsewhere in the public may come from the political left rather than the political right who will be critical that his policies will be modest, however they will be goals where it is more likely to achieve results by delegating responsibility to the right persons to get some results.

There is also the real reality that the economy may tend to worsen for a short period after Mr. Obama becomes president because some economic trends will take a few months to turn around. However, there should likely be a positive uptick in consumer confidence with the election of a new president, creating a climate of hope that may well help to create an early boost and economic turnaround. If anything, President Obama will inspire hope. And that will go a long way towards healing this nation and making America great again.


Note: Wizbang Blue is now closed and our authors have moved on. Paul Hooson can now be found at Wizbang Pop!. Please come see him there!

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Comments (4)

Kev:

They've already designed "Obama- Not My President" shirts, too :)

I still don't udnerstand how you think Obama will "heal" us. He is divisive, he has never reached across the aisle politically. Those who challenge him are either ignored as being inconsequential, or destroyed in some manner or another. He will push his own agenda, consequences be damned (for just one example, please see the video on Wizbang on how Obama wants to bankrupt coal plants.) You know I can't stand Obama, but I'd not be so opposed to him (despite his policies) if I truly thought he would reach across the aisle and help to unite our nation. I have however seen absolutely nothing to make me believe he's anything but a divider. I wish I could begin to understand this whole "he'll be a centrist who heals us" argument~ as far as I've seen, it's only Obama saying he will be, but his track record on the whole matter completely negates his words. All we have is to take him at his word, but he is not trustworthy (not just to me, but to countless others.) Political party agenda aside, this is a huge concern for conservates-- the fact that Obama has such a history of not working with others who have different opinions, that he has a history of saying one thing to placate people, but doing what he wants to do anyway, that he does not keep his word, that he is not trustworthy. I hope you're right about him, Paul, but that's about he extent of inspiration of "hope" I have in regard for Barack Obama... the hope he will not divide Americans further, and the hope that he will not destroy all he personally doesn't believe in.

Hello Kew, you may personally never agree politically with Mr. Obama, but I'll bet that you'll appreciate it if he restores the American economy as well as international respect for the United States around the world.

I never agreed politically with Ronald Reagan, but I always had some admiration for him and his great speeches as well economic rebound years. You can usually find enough good things in an opposition president to admire, although I didn't find nearly as much with George Bush myself to really admire compared to most presidents. And Reagan did surround himself with some very likable figures such as Surgeon General Dr. C. Everett Koop and others as well.

I sort of expect Obama to become a little like the Democratic Ronald Reagan as well as John Kennedy. And that's of course a good thing.

Fay Johns:

I love you guys and love the prank you did on Palin. Thank you for letting the world and the united states residence know how unqualified she is to hold any position in the government.
You are the bomb...

Allen:

Kev, seeing as you are so full of wisdom for the GOP, do you think you can answer the family values question? Come on Kev, suck it up and answer truthfully, OK?

And if Obama is a divider, well he must have taken lessons from the people in the White House right now. I'm willing to give him a chance, but then you could be correct Kev. Maybe what this country needs is 4 more years of Bush policies, and after that, the GOP would be a footnote in the history books.

If the GOP would have stayed like they were in the 60's, McCain would have blown the doors off the Demo party, without resorting to voter caging and flip/flop voting machines. I would suggest you die hard wingnuts start thinking about changing the GOP back to the standards they once had.


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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