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It's Another Republican Recession

Updated and Bumped -- It's official - Peter F. and Tom Blogical - two trolls from our sister site Wizbang, fought tooth and nail in thie comment section of this July, 2008 post to deny that our country had entered a recession. Well, it's official - they're jackasses...

The U.S. economy has been in a recession since December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday.

The NBER -- a private, nonprofit research organization -- said its group of academic economists who determine business cycles met and decided that the U.S. recession began last December.

By one benchmark, a recession occurs whenever the gross domestic product, the total output of goods and services, declines for two consecutive quarters. The GDP turned negative in the July-September quarter of this year, and many economists believe it is falling in the current quarter at an even sharper rate.

But the NBER's dating committee uses broader and more precise measures, including employment data. In a news release, the group said its cycle dating committee held a telephone conference call on Friday and made the determination on when the recession began.

Not only did I call the fact that we were in a recession correctly - I nailed the starting point of the recession:

They then look back, and pick the date that the recession started. Hint - it started 4Q '07, Tom.

By definition we are in a recession for many months before the recession is "declared"....

We're in a recession, now, Tom - even though it hasn't been declared, and probably won't be declared for some time now.

It took another four months before the NBER called it, and meanwhile conservative loudmouths like Peter F and Illogical Tom Blogical got a free ride on their lies... but sooner or later the truth always seems to catch up with these trolls...

----original post begins here---

It's Another Republican Recession
published July 31, 2008

Wall Street could be in for a rocky ride today as unemployment takes a big jump up and GDP grows slower than expected, knocking the U.S. squarely into a recession.

But not to worry, Republicans. You'll be relieved to learn that Exxon's profits are rising.

The world's biggest non-government oil company had net income of $11.68 billion, or $2.22 a share, up from $10.26 billion, or $1.83 a share, a year earlier.

Wew! That's a relief!

But everyday Americans shouldn't count on relief, not from Republicans. The Republican criminals in Washington are more concerned about staying out of jail than in solving our economic crisis.

[S]ome economists, most notably Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, have worried that with those [economic stimulus] checks already cashed, spending and economic activity could now slow in the second half of the year.

Gross domestic purchases, a measure of how much American consumers, businesses and governments are buying, fell 0.5%, after a narrow 0.1% rise in the first quarter and a 1% drop in the fourth quarter, a sign of underlying weakness in the economy.

Robert Brusca of FAO Economics described the report as weaker than the 1.9% growth rate would suggest, as changes in imports and exports was responsible for more growth than that by itself.

Update: CNNMoney.com

The gross domestic product, the broad measure of the nation's economic activity, grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the three months ended in June. That's up from a revised 0.9% growth rate in the first quarter.

Even with much stronger growth, the reading was weaker than expected, as economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast growth of 2.3%.

The first-quarter reading was revised lower from a 1% growth estimate a month ago.

The Commerce Department revised the fourth-quarter 2007 reading to a decline of 0.2%. The previous fourth-quarter reading was 0.6% growth.

And yes, we are in a recession.

Many people wrongly believe that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP below zero. In fact, during the last recession of 2001 there never were two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

The body that determines when the economy is in a recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research, does not focus on GDP. It looks at a variety of other economic measures, including employment, income controlled for inflation, wholesale and retail sales, as well as industrial production. It generally does not declare a recession until at least six months after it begins.

Our national debt hit $9.5 Trillion today, another boat anchor around the necks of everyday Americans... but Republicans like John McCain are happy to pledge American lives and tax dollars towards protecting Exxon's interests in the Middle East for another 100 years.

Update II: Note that in the comment thread below a few of Wizbang's worst resident trolls attempt a classic Republican lie misdirection, stating that it takes two consecutive quarters of declining GDP to signal a recession.

Bullshit. Here's the Wall Street Journal:

Recession redefined

It's a common (but mistaken) belief that a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

The actual working definition is "a significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months," usually seen in GDP as well as monthly data on job growth, income growth, industrial output and business sales. All four of the monthly indicators are flashing recession signs.

Related: John McCain Strikes it Rich!


Note: Wizbang Blue is now closed and our authors have moved on. Paul Hooson can now be found at Wizbang Pop!. Please come see him there!

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Comments (60)

"And yes, we are in a recession."

No. We're not in a recession, despite your cheerleading for one:

The nation's semi-official recession arbiter, a group of economists at the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research, is still far from calling today's mess a recession under its definition. Continued economic expansion -- as measured by gross domestic product -- complicates deliberations for the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee.

Here's the entire article from the WSJ. The economy certainly isn't good, but let's just stick to the facts, shall we?

Sorry. Here is the link to the WSJ article.

Lee Ward:

The WSJ article you linked to, Tom, was published on July 28 - before Commerce revised the 4Q '07 GDP to a decline of 0.2%.

So now, today, we have one quarter that has declined, and that's just the tip of the iceberg. Gas price increases accelerated after 4Q '07, and the quarters which followed will show declines as well. Further downward revisions are highly likely also.

We're in a recession, you just won't find the Bush administration admitting it until after the November election.

It's part of that whole "lying to the American public" thing that they do so well...

Dick Nixon plunged us into a recession, and Republicans blamed it on Jimmy Carter.

George HW Bush plunged us into a recession, and Republicans blamed it on Bill Clinton.

George W Bush plunged us into a recession, and Republicans will blame Obama.

It's just more of the same... dodging responsibility and denying the obvious... Republican politics as usual.

Lee Ward:

Link

``We're in a recession,'' Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``It's going to widen, it's going to deepen.''

So, let me get this straight. You link to an article that describes exactly who defines a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research. We agree on this. The entire economic industry agrees on this.

The National Bureau of Economic Research has not, as of yet, defined the current economic condition as, "a recession".

Despite that, you still label the current condition as a "recession".

Now that's wishful thinking. It's no wonder that nobody takes you seriously.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

So let me get this straight.

You link to an article that's based on old information, and when I point out the folly of your ways and show you a different opinion than yours, based on current information, you engage in a personal attack rather than admit your error?

No wonder, you're a Republican.

Yes, we can be in a recession without an official declaration because the declaration that we're "in a recession" comes 6 months or more after the recession starts. They then look back, and pick the date that the recession started. Hint - it started 4Q '07, Tom.

By definition we are in a recession for many months before the recession is "declared"....

We're in a recession, now, Tom - even though it hasn't been declared, and probably won't be declared for some time now.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

From the WSJ article that you linked to, Tom... did you even read it? I did.

In dating the 2001 economic downturn, the NBER committee's debate focused on how much emphasis to place on employment and GDP. It ultimately announced in November 2001 that the recession had started in March, when payrolls started declining. It made that call only after the government reported a GDP decline in the third quarter of 2001. (Later revisions showed that GDP declined during the first and third quarters of 2001.)"

Today's revision of 4Q '07 comes seven months after the fact.

The decision that we're in a recession comes long after the recession is started, and its then back-dated to an earlier time.

Get informed, Tom - it's an election year.

Peter F.:

Based on 3-day OLD information. Are you serious, Lee? More to the point, you can't be seriously quibbling that .4% is somehow MORE of a definitive indicator of a recession and that it will now magically be enough of a change to fall under NBER's definition. In short, not a economic tipping point, no matter how much you'd like it to be so.

It's not that nobody takes you seriously, Lee; it's just that nobody takes you seriously when you're so obviously and disingenuously attempting to politicize and misrepresent an economic situation.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

The WSJ article came out before the GDP was revised, and it the decline in GDP is the first decline. They'll probably wait until they get a second decline before declaring the recession, but it will then be backdated to the 4th quarter of 2007.

Sure I read it. Clue phone for you, this isn't 2001--it's 2008. It still doesn't change the fact that the NBER has NOT declared a recession yet. By the rough definition, we haven't gone through 2 quarters of a shrinking GDP yet. When that happens, then we can start agreeing about whether we're in a recession or not.

By your own admission, the NBER will not decide if we're in a recession for 6 months after it starts.

So, how dumb are you going to look in 6 months if the NBER decides this timeframe isn't a recession? All I'm saying is, we don't have enough information to make that declaration yet. The NBER agrees with me about the lack of having enough information. I can't help it this is an annoying little fact for you, or that this is the kind of thing that prevents people from taking you seriously. If that hurts your widdle feelings...too bad.

I'm also not saying the state of economy isn't fair game. It is. At any rate, you keep cheerleading for that recession declaration, though. Bad news for the country is good news for you.

Geez...

And after adding to your final response to Tom you UPDATE YOUR POST (oh the power you wield as Blue editor!) and then present a strawman argument of when a recession is officially announced when Tom never even brought that up!

Nice attempt at switching the subject away from your worthless argument.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

"It still doesn't change the fact that the NBER has NOT declared a recession yet"

I didn't say they had, but the fact that they haven't declared it yet doesn't mean we're not in a recession now. The last time they declared a recession, at the time they declared it they indicated it started 6 months before the declaration...

By your own admission, the NBER will not decide if we're in a recession for 6 months after it starts."

Yes, at least six months. We're in a recession for 6 months or more before NBER declares it. We're in a recession now, and they will declare it at some point in the future.

"So, how dumb are you going to look in 6 months if the NBER decides this timeframe isn't a recession?"

Unlike most Republicans I know, if I'm wrong I'll admit it. Will you?

"The NBER agrees with me about the lack of having enough information."

Nice try, lol. The NBER has declared that we're not in a recession, now have they?

"At any rate, you keep cheerleading for that recession declaration, though. Bad news for the country is good news for you."

Whatever...

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

"and then present a strawman argument of when a recession is officially announced when Tom never even brought that up!"

It's not a strawman argument. It's the whole argument Tom is making - that they haven't declared we're in a recession therefore we're not in a recession.

I say we are. Others agree. The declaration will come somewhere down the road, as it always does...

"They'll probably wait until they get a second decline before declaring the recession, but it will then be backdated to the 4th quarter of 2007."

LOL! No kidding. There was at least one other time in 2007 that the 2nd decline was expected, but never happened. That's why the NBER waits to gather enough information before making their findings known.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

"That's why the NBER waits to gather enough information before making their findings known."

Yes, declaring we're in a recession is bad news, and they wait to give you the bad news until after they have more evidence.

But that's irrelevant to the fact that we're in a recession long before they declare we're in a recession, now isn't it?

I say we are. Others agree.

Just because others agree, doesn't make you right or wrong. I'm sure I could find economists who think we're not in a recession right now. That's not the freaking point.

You declared we were in a recession and block quoted a portion of a link, as if that was proof we're in one. In fact, there's no proof of anything, other than the economy isn't very good right now. The body you cite as authoritative in declaring recessions, the NBER, as determining a recession hasn't done it yet.

My argument is that it's your opinion we're in a recession, and nobody knows whether we're in a recession or not. Because we don't have enough information to declare one.

The economy hasn't even met the rough criteria of a recession yet.

That's an undeniable fact.

"But that's irrelevant to the fact that we're in a recession long before they declare we're in a recession, now isn't it?"

Once again, YOU DON'T KNOW THAT YET. That's your OPINION.

Stick to the facts, Lee. The economy sucks right now. Whether we are in a recession or not is open to interpretation until the NBER declares it as such.

Lee Ward:

"My argument is that it's your opinion we're in a recession, and nobody knows whether we're in a recession or not. Because we don't have enough information to declare one."

And my point is that not having enough information for NBER to declare it -- which is the basis for your defense that we're not in a recession - doesn't mean we're not in a recession right now.

In fact, the fact that today the 4th quarter 2007 GNP was revised downward showing a decline in that quarter indicates strongly that we're in a recession. Much of the gasoline price rises came after December, 2007.

I know it's bad news for Republicans, especially given the history of recession under Republican presidents, and the fact that a Democrat has been brought in to fix the Republican mess for the last 30+ years.

It's like declaring that it's not raining outside because the National Weather Service hasn't told you it's raining, Tom. You apparently choose to ignore the evidence that it is raining and want to wait for the declaration six months from now that it rained on July 31, 2008 - because that suits your political purpose.

You apparently choose to ignore the evidence that it is raining and want to wait for the declaration six months from now that it rained on July 31, 2008 - because that suits your political purpose."

ROTFLMAO! Project much?

You're presuming the economy won't recover. I presume I don't know what's going to happen. What do you know that hundreds of thousands of economists don't know? Are you going to set up you're own Psychic Hotline sometime today?

I also told you many times in this discussion the economy isn't doing well and have never brought politics into the discussion. As far as I'm concerned, if we're in a recession, that's the way it is--so be it. I could care less what the political ramifications are, because I know who the presidential candidates are. Neither of them represent me well at all. And it also looks to me like the Dems will make gains in either the House and Senate whether there's a recession or not, according to the polls. That's just the way it is.

I've always called it as it is in this discussion. It's obvious the way you've represented yourself that you're the one with the political axe to grind. Your cheerleading for a recession and your giddy anticipation of the NBER's findings is obviously politically motivated.

You've definitely made your point to me. I'm convinced of your motivations. If it's your opinion we're in a recession, fine. Thankfully, your opinion doesn't change reality.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

Lol...

Project much?

You're presuming the economy won't recover."

I didn't say that -- We'll recover from this recession. I have a lot of confidence in President Obama (now that's projecting).

But the effect of increased energy prices always lags - it takes time. Retailers start out by absorbing price increases from manufacturers, but eventually the price increases are passed on to the consumer and inflation increases.

All signs today point to that, not against it.

Gas prices are starting to come down in the past week or so. If that continues the price effect and lessening inflationary pressures of lower gasoline prices will lag behind the price decreases as the lower gasoline costs work their way through the manufacturing cycle.

The lag works both ways.

I didn't say that..."

You don't have to. Since a recession hasn't been declared (and we haven't seen 2 straight quarters of GDP reduction yet) and it won't be determined for 6 months from now whether it is or isn't one, you're implying that you are, in fact, presuming the economy won't recover in the next quarter.

As I asked before--if in 6 months the NBER does not declare a recession--how dumb are you going to look?

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

"you're implying that you are, in fact, presuming the economy won't recover in the next quarter."

That's one way to look at it. Another is to expect that there will be downward revisions indicating declines in the first, second and/or 3rd quarters of 2008.

But the "2 straight quarters" is not the benchmark of a recession, Tom. Where's Peter and his strawman detector when you need him....?

I refer again to the post and link above :

Many people wrongly believe that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP below zero. In fact, during the last recession of 2001 there never were two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

The "two straight quarters" argument is a Republican fallacy used to fool the American public - just tell them that we haven't had two straight quarters, blah blah blah. I bet McCain is repeating the same lie right now... or will be soon.

"As I asked before--if in 6 months the NBER does not declare a recession--how dumb are you going to look?"

As dumb as you'll look when I'm proven right.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

Link - this came out 1 hour ago.

The U.S. may now be in a ``very long'' recession that will drive the unemployment rate higher, with little that the Federal Reserve can do to help, said Harvard University Professor Martin Feldstein.

``I don't see recovery'' on the horizon, Feldstein, who headed the National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] until June and serves on the group's recession-dating panel, said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio.

and...

``The little boost that we got from the tax rebates we will give up in the third and fourth quarters,'' Feldstein said. ``We're in for higher levels of unemployment and job losses.''

A ``typical'' U.S. recession lasts about 12 months, while the past two were about eight months, Feldstein said. This time, the slump may be longer, he indicated.

``If we do end up dating the recession as beginning at the end of last year, it could be a very long recession,'' he said.

LOL! Lots of "may's" and "if's" in those quotes. I wonder why? ;-)

"As dumb as you'll look when I'm proven right."

Au contraire.

Once again, I don't presume anything until all the facts are out. I recommend you do the same. You have a lot riding on the results since you aren't going to wait for all the facts to come out.

I don't.

"But the "2 straight quarters" is not the benchmark of a recession, Tom. Where's Peter and his strawman detector when you need him....?

Hey Adam Smith, that's NOT a strawman nor is it a 'Republican fallacy'; it's part of classic economic theory, Republican or otherwise.

And you can keep referring to your own post:

"Many people wrongly believe that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP below zero. In fact, during the last recession of 2001 there never were two consecutive quarters of negative GDP."

But conveniently never provided link so it and its source couldn't be analyzed or questioned. SOP.

Gasp!! Reuters is going off the "recession" playbook!! You better whip their asses into shape, Lee! ;-)

An emergency dose of government stimulus helped the economy grow at a 1.9 percent annual rate in the second quarter, a soft pace but enough to take it off a path perilously close to recession.

Yes, I've read all of it. They continue to describe the economy as it is--but even Reuters is using caution about calling this timeframe a recession. As they should.

As Peter F. said--stating economic theory is not a Republican fallacy. Are you saying classic economic theory is a fallacy, Lee?

To quote you, "You're a lying liar." I'll add, pants on fire. ;-)

FYI, here's the Reuter's article I forgot to link to. :-)

I know what your problem is, Lee. You can't ever admit you're wrong, and that nobody but partisan hacks like you are calling this a recession. Like I said, the economy is still bad, so buck up little liberal! There's still lots of bad news out there for you to be happy about! ;-)

From the same WSJ link I provided earlier:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, before joining the central bank early this decade, served on the NBER committee when it declared the start of the 2001 recession. Mr. Bernanke told lawmakers in April that a recession is possible this year. Pressed at a House hearing this month about whether he thinks the U.S. is in recession now, he said: "I don't know. I'm quite confident that the people who officially will determine that don't know either."
Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

And the WSJ article which you linked to was published before the downward revision. It's old news based on old information.

"As Peter F. said--stating economic theory is not a Republican fallacy. Are you saying classic economic theory is a fallacy, Lee?"

I'll call 'bullshit' on the "classic economic theory" - especially since in the most recent example of a recession, this "classic economic theory" was flat out wrong.

In the 1991 recession there were not 2 consecutive quarters.

Many people wrongly believe that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP below zero. In fact, during the last recession of 2001 there never were two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

So the "classic economic theory" you cling to was wrong in the most recent recession.

But you Republicans do cling to outdated, old, false theories as if you're lives depended on them. Even after they're proven to be wrong.

And the WSJ article which you linked to was published before the downward revision. It's old news based on old information."

Yeah, I'm sure Barnanke is going to rush right out 3 days later and declare this a recession based on this "new" information! LOL!!! Especially since the previous article I quoted--from Reuters--declared today based on today's information that the economy is "...off a path perilously close to recession"!!! ROTFLMAO!!! You're a laugh riot!!!

"I'll call 'bullshit' on the "classic economic theory" - especially since in the most recent example of a recession, this "classic economic theory" was flat out wrong."

You can call bullshit on it if you want. The fact is, in economicsit's used as a rule of thumb:

A recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy and lasting more than a few months, and is normally visible in real gross domestic product (GDP), real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A common rule of thumb is that a recession occurs when real GDP is negative for two or more consecutive quarters. The NBER however does not define a recession in these terms. An economy can be in a recession despite having a positive real GDP.

Keep in mind, a "rule of thumb" principle isn't foolproof. Hence the term "rule of thumb". There are exceptions to the rule; just not that many.

"But you Republicans do cling to outdated, old, false theories as if you're lives depended on them. Even after they're proven to be wrong."

Politics has nothing to do with this!!! I love the accidental comedy!!! Keep it coming!!!

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'll call 'bullshit' on the "classic economic theory" - especially since in the most recent example of a recession, this "classic economic theory" was flat out wrong.

I going to call...

Bullshit

Bullshit

Bullshit (look, it even plays into your definition...just to show I'm man enough to acknowledge that, like all theories, the concept is debatable)

NBER Bullshit definition

Hence, why I said "a part of" classic economic theory. Furthermore, citing one example (and even other historical examples) of where the theory did not hold true does NOT mean that the theory itself is NOT valid as it is more often than not valid. If there were no variance, it would be called a "law"; but there IS variance, so it is called "theory", And you should know that since you seemingly think of yourself as the love child of Adam Smith.

So bullshit on you calling my "a part of classic economic theory" bullshit.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

"Furthermore, citing one example (and even other historical examples) of where the theory did not hold true does NOT mean that the theory itself is NOT valid"

How about if I point out the last time your theory applied was over 30 years ago?

And then I'll point out that your rule was proven invalid and not applicable to the 1991 recession.

It's a new economy. It takes new thinking and new ideas to avoid making the same old mistakes. We learn from experience, and learn to recognize situations sooner and act accordingly -- well, some of us do anyway. Some seem so stuck in the past, and clingy....

Others recognize and pick up on the changes, and don't get stuck wallowing around with 30 year theories that have more recently proven false a full 15 years ago.

But you go ahead and cling to the benchmark that applied in the 1970s. It fits right with the geriatric mindset of John McSame.

Wow. Having a discussion with Lee is like talking to Yogi Berra. If only the Aflac Duck were here to express my reaction to Lee's comments and arguments today.

Oh wait!!! Thanks to the magic of YouTube, he is here!!!! Yay!!!!!

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

It figures -- you can count on a Republican to cry "fowl" after losing an argument... heh.

LOL!!

...and you can always count on Lee Ward to deny reality and invent his own to protect his fragile little psyche.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

Oh yeah - thanks for the reminder. Let me try that again...

It figures -- you can count on a Republican to cry "fowl" after losing an argument... and then resort to ad hominem attacks.

I have to go now... my 8 year old nephew needs a ride over to Jay Tea's house so he can help Jay install software on his computer.

Thanks for the spar, Tom. It's obvious that your particular... uhm "enthusiasm" requires that you have the last word in order to get in one more ad hominem jab and insult, so feel free.

LOL!!!

Let me get this straight--you're crying over my light-hearted comment and "ad-hominem attack"? That's hi-larious. I guess you do have a fragile psyche. Hmmmm...you must've forgotten that you called me a LIAR in comment #22:

"I bet McCain is repeating the same lie right now... or will be soon."

Calling someone a liar is a fairly serious accusation, of which you were obviously proven wrong. Gee, by your own comments, I thought you were tougher than that. Gasp!! Another "ad-hominem attack"! Horrors!!

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!

Troy Allen:

Well it looks like even CNN Money realized it was completely wrong about "Many People Wrongly Believe A Recession..." because they have COMPLETELY pulled those two paragraphs:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/31/news/economy/gdp/index.htm?postversion=2008073110

Very interesting indeed.

Lee Ward:

And I've included a quote from the WSJ in the updated post above which also confirms that the "two consecutive quarters" argument isn't valid.

Allen:

One thing a lot of people are forgetting is that when your neighbor is laid off from their job, it is a recession.

When you are laid off, it damn well is a depression. Simple fact, more people have lost their jobs in the last several months than more jobs created.

Thats right, they should, to the average person, make you wonder. Then look at the food prices, gas prices, no net gain on jobs. WHAT THE HELL DO YOU CALL IT?

According to some people (with CDS) it's all Clinton's fault. Take a good look at the economics of this country since the 1960's.

A recession has hit this country after every Republican President was in office, and the so called "talking points" of the GOP is that the seceding president caused it. And in every case, a Demo president took over after the GOP screwed up.

Don't like the truth, well tough manure!

I normally spend a great deal of time listening to CNBC and CNN while I work and missed some of this big economic news today.

Wow, I take part of one day off to listen to some classic TEN YEARS AFTER albums, and bad economic news explodes again.


I'm still reeling from having to take more than a $100,000 market loss on a home I had to sell a few weeks ago and sure hate to hear about any more bad econmic news because of the Bush Administration because it always seems to cost me money whether it's big oil prices, inflation, etc., etc, etc. Boy, I sure hope we change parties in the White House this year. I can't take any more of this stuff.

Lee Ward:

I've been following the economy and the markets for decades, and have managed my own retirement portfolio for over 10 years now. In the last two years I've exclusively engaged in market-timing, moving in and out of equities and commodities according to the rise and fall of U.S. dollar, oil prices, swings in precious metals, etc. My portfolio is up an average of 20%+ for the first 6 months of 2008 and I've gained a little over 25% in 2007. Since markets swing back and forth based on news, international tensions, and public sentiment, trading sentiment, etc. and since I follow all of those topics daily I figured why not take advantage of this research and put it to work.

The bad news on inflation is that the economy is still passing the commodity-driven infaltionary bubble created by higher energy prices and the downturn created by the mortgage crisis and the drop in housing values. This bubble still has 3-6 months to work it's way through the US economy, in my view.

The good news is that stock markets are a leading indicator, and the markets are showing some resiliency and are therefore predicting better days ahead in early 2009.

Housing however will likely lag. As gas prices drop and inflationary pressures on food and energy ease this will put more coin in Americans pockets and spending will rise, retail sales will rise, durable goods sales will rise, etc. People will start buying again, and have less fear of losing their job, etc.

But they won't run out and buy houses immediately, is my guess. If the fed can keep interest rates low, I'd expect housing to see a slow recovery through 2008 and better days for the housing market will start in Spring or Summer of 2009. It'll be another year past that before we see house prices rebounding significantly, in my view. You've just got to hold on and ride it out, and don't sell at the lows.

Ravenshrike:

The left should be banned from talking about the national debt considering that if you use proper accounting methods the US is well over 80 trillion dollars in debt due to entitlement programs cheerleaded primarily by the left.

Lee Ward[TypeKey Profile Page]:

Clinton erased the budget deficit, and Bush brought it back with a vengeance, prosecuting a phony "Global War on Terror" and chasing after make-believe WMDs, driving our nation back into debt.

Another good reason for conservatives to ban lefties from talking about the national debt, eh Raven?

[Tom Blogical]:

You can always count on the trolls...{this comment has been moved from a different thread}

You sure have a selective memory, and a selective way of reading your own comment section. Since you've closed the comment section on this thread, I'll kindly remind you here it was ME who told YOU in that very comment section the NBER is the entity that defines a recession. And that once the NBER defines it as such, then I'd concur. I told you the 2 QTRs in a row is a rule of thumb to go by until the NBER makes its decision, not a "law", nor is it a "lie" you worthless, slandering idiot.

It's really brave of you to slander someone and not give them a chance to respond, you cretin.

I'd much rather be a JACKASS, than a DUMBASS like you any day, Ward. It's no wonder nobody reads your mindless drivel.

2. Posted by Tom Blogical | December 1, 2008 3:34 PM

Lee Ward:

Where to start.. well, why not start with comment #1:

Tom Blogical, July 31, 2008 - "No. We're not in a recession, despite your cheerleading for one"...

"The economy certainly isn't good, but let's just stick to the facts, shall we?"

Well, Tom we most certainly were in a recession on July 31, 2008 -- in fact, we were in a recession that was 8 months old at that time.

Lee Ward:

And then there's comment number 5:

Tom Blogical, July 31, 2008: "Despite that, you still label the current condition as a "recession".

Now that's wishful thinking. It's no wonder that nobody takes you seriously."

No, Tom, it wasn't wishful thinking - it was a fact. We were in a recession when you wrote that on July 31, 2008, a recession that was 8 months old.

Lee Ward:

Comment #10 is classic Blogical at work:

"By your own admission, the NBER will not decide if we're in a recession for 6 months after it starts."

"So, how dumb are you going to look in 6 months if the NBER decides this timeframe isn't a recession?"

Well, Tom - you tell me how it feels... lol

Lee Ward:

Comment #29 was pure butter...

Tom Blogical: "I know what your problem is, Lee. You can't ever admit you're wrong, and that nobody but partisan hacks like you are calling this a recession. Like I said, the economy is still bad, so buck up little liberal! There's still lots of bad news out there for you to be happy about! ;-)"

Will Blathering Blogical admit he was wrong and that we were in fact in a recession back in July - a recession that was 8 months old...?

Nope - he'll cuss and spit like a good little troll then slink away with his tail between his legs....

Well, Lee it's not surprising that you didn't copy and paste my ENTIRE comment from number 5:

"So, let me get this straight. You link to an article that describes exactly who defines a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research. We agree on this. The entire economic industry agrees on this.

The National Bureau of Economic Research has not, as of yet, defined the current economic condition as, "a recession".

Despite that, you still label the current condition as a "recession".

Now that's wishful thinking. It's no wonder that nobody takes you seriously."

And here's more dishonest misrepresentation from you:

"Will Blathering Blogical admit he was wrong and that we were in fact in a recession back in July - a recession that was 8 months old...?"

I told you we agree that the NBER is the only entity that can declare a recession, so I'm now concurring, as the NBER has ONLY NOW defined it as such. AS I TOLD YOU FROM THE BEGINNING OF OUR "CONVERSATION".

I don't have a problem admitting I was wrong. I told you then I didn't have enough information to decide then JUST AS THE NBER DIDN'T, but if the NBER says it's so JUST NOW, then sure. I was wrong way back in July.

I'll go ahead and admit that I don't have clairvoyance either, along with the rest of America, although it seems as though you claim to have plenty of that ability. Good enough?

Talking to you is like talking to a brick wall. Actually, no. That's an insult to a brick wall's intelligence. There is no communication with you. It's actually just you calling everyone who disagrees with you a liar. Ironically, it's you who's the liar, but you'll never admit it.

Too bad you banned Peter F. for simply disagreeing with you so he could defend himself here, you worthless piece of shit. Then again, you are famous for that, aren't you?

Go ahead and keep slandering me and twisting reality into what you want. I'm done commenting here at your Dishonesty Palace, you petty, shitty little worm.

Lee Ward:

Comment 5 in its entirety, because heaven knows we don't want to short change a troll like Blogical:

So, let me get this straight. You link to an article that describes exactly who defines a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research. We agree on this. The entire economic industry agrees on this.

The National Bureau of Economic Research has not, as of yet, defined the current economic condition as, "a recession".

Despite that, you still label the current condition as a "recession".

Now that's wishful thinking. It's no wonder that nobody takes you seriously.

The"money" quote is "The National Bureau of Economic Research has not, as of yet, defined the current economic condition as, "a recession". Despite that, you still label the current condition as a "recession"."

Yep - because we were in a recession, whether NBER declared it a recession at that time or not. You still can't admit that, can you? It didn't matter that NBER had come out with a declaration that were in a recession - we were still in a recession, Tom.

?"I don't have a problem admitting I was wrong. I told you then I didn't have enough information to decide then "

Well you know Tom - that's fine if YOU didn't have enough information to recognize back in July that were in a recession, that's fine. You could have just disagreed with me. Instead you declared I was wrong, you declared we weren't in a recession when in fact we were, etc etc...

You were a braying jackass because you didn't like the sound of the "R" word - but I was right...

Lee Ward:

And this should not go unanswered - because it's just another troll's lie.

"Too bad you banned Peter F. for simply disagreeing with you so he could defend himself here, you worthless piece of shit"

Peter was banned for trolling, plain and simple, and as Wizbang network blogger he knew he was trolling, he knew what the policy is. When Peter later tried to get around the ban I sent him an email offering to drop the ban if he could stay within the commenting policy, and he declined. What does that say... he only wants to comment when he doesn't have to live within the site's commenting policy?

But just keep on telling those lies their Blogical - hell - even a broken clock is correct twice a day. Maybe you'll get lucky and be right once in a while... I've yet to see it happen on this blog - but you must be right somewhere or at some point in time...

Lee Ward:

And in today's official announcement from the NBER was this:

The difference, of course, is that the country entered a recession exactly one year ago, at least according to the Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is made up of seven prominent economists, most from the academic sector. The group made their official announcement on Monday that the economy entered a recession in December 2007.

"A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators," the members said in a statement. "A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough."

The committee noted that the contraction in the labor market began in the first month of 2008 and said that the declines in most major indicators, like personal income, manufacturing activity, retail sales, and industrial production, "met the standard for a recession."

Nothing in there describes a recession as being present only when the NBER describes it as such.

Your thinking is so illogical, Blogical -- we weren't in a recession last July because the the NBER hadn't issued a press release yet? are you friggin' serious?

You sir, are a jackass.

Allen:

Lee, you can't reason with a dumb rock, nor can a person reason with a GOP troll.

The myth about the UAW people making $70 per hour is also a myth, but as they are union hating people, they keep harping about it. The truth of the matter is the average auto worker makes around $57,000 per year. Divide 57,000 by 2,000 (2,000 is average hrs worked per year by almost everyone) and the answer is: $28.50. Add another $10.00 per hour for benefits, it comes to around $38.50.

Now how much the the CEO, and his benefits, including stock options, worth per year? And Congress wants the big 3 to have a plan. OK, where in the hell is the plan for AIG, CITI, and all the other financial places that are getting bailed out?

There is none, because the fat cat CEO's, are normally big money people to the GOP. Smell a rat somewhere?

GianniD:

Seems like the economy, housing, mortgage, and auto markets have gone in the tank since Dims took over Congress in Jan 2007.

Remember than ran in 2006 that they'd fix things? They also said they'd have the most ethical Congress waiting. (Wm Jefferson is still in Congress, and Dodd and Frank are enjoying the fruits of their relationship with Fannie)

Allen:

GianniD, WM Jefferson HAS NOT HAD HIS DAY IN COURT YET. So until he is/isn't convicted, yes he is a member of Congress, just like your Uncle Ted was, except he was defeated in his election. And remember Ney from Ohio, convicted, but spent another month in office so he could collect his next pay check?

And why has more GOP members of Congress been convicted, under investigation, etc, then your so called Dims are? It is, until 1-20-09 still a GOP controlled Justice Dept, right?

And since the Dims (as you call them) took over in 2006, the GOP has obstructed them on everything they tried to do.

And the sad fact is, because of the GOP tactics, they are really a minority now, and if they keep obstructing everything, they will become more extinct.

hansel2:

The Bush administration backed off proposed crackdowns on no-money-down, interest-only mortgages years before the economy collapsed, buckling to pressure from some of the same banks that have now failed. It ignored remarkably prescient warnings that foretold the financial meltdown, according to an Associated Press review of regulatory documents. - Associated Press

Who cares what these yoyos have to say about Clinton. Bush has dropped the ball so many times it's criminal. Anyone who defends him is a moron - and that's not a gray area.


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