The shocking uptick in violence in Iraq in the last few days including bombings at events recruiting new security forces, sadly indicates that the Iraqi military is simply not yet up to the task of defending their own nation. This uptick in violence comes right after the Obama Administration announced plans to cut U.S. troop strength in Iraq and to slowly withdraw down to a smaller force of 50,000 troops, largely confined to their bases rather than on active military patrols in Iraq.
Unfortunately, after the spending of at least $603.7 billion dollars in Iraq by the Bush Administration since 2003 up until today by the Obama Administration, the security situation in Iraq appears to quickly deteriorating once again as Iraqi security units are put in charge of largely managing all security operations. Terrorists, including Al Qaeda seemed to have found new holes in the Iraqi security to exploit despite intensive training by American forces.
What is so discouraging about the renewed violence in Iraq is that the situation in Afghanistan is also facing some deterioration as well. In fact, the U.S. is quickly finding itself caught in a situation in both countries similar to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, where small bands of Taliban or other fighters can slowly wear down and outlast a far superior military. In Afghanistan and Iraq, Al Qaeda and other enemy fighters have learned new ways to adapt to whatever security changes take place, and to find new security holes to exploit.
The problem is that the security situation in both Iraq and Afghanistan is nowhere near resolved, and the continued violence in both countries seriously hampers economic development and leaves both countries largely dependent on U.S. aid to survive just at a time that the U.S. struggles with the major global recession.
The deteriorating security situation in both Iraq and Afghanistan unfortunately proves that once the U.S. enters a military situation in underdeveloped nations, then those situations are very difficult to leave. Further, like the failed "Vietnamization" of the Vietnam War, leaving security up to people of Iraq seems to be also failing as well. This new violence proves that Iraqi security just cannot completely stand on it's own without a strong supporting role by U.S. forces.
If the new violence in Iraq continues to worsen over the next few days, it might actually force some serious rethinking by the Obama Administration of the future U.S. role in Iraq. The Obama Administration certainly does not want to be viewed as the administration that lost the war in Iraq. Unless this new security crisis can be quickly improved and this wave of violence quickly controlled, the Obama Administration might be forced to rethink using a more active role for U.S. troops in Iraq, which will also unfortunately result in more U.S. troop deaths as well if they have to replace the security failures of Iraqi forces and security details.
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