Sarah Palin had been listed as the keynote speaker at a major fundraising and and morale boosting Senate Republican Committee dinner on June 8, but now she's being replaced by Newt Gingrich. Palin's handlers claim that she was busy with obligations as governor until the end of the Alaskan legislative session, yet she had previously committed herself to giving the keynote address.
It's not really known whether much can be read into this excuse for absence for this event. But it could be a possible sign that donations to the Sarah PAC, which Palin is using to bankroll her 2012 bid for president isn't really going nearly as well as hoped. Palin might have some following among some rank and file Republicans, but the more serious deep moneybags Republicans are probably looking for more serious candidates to back. Also a bad trend for Palin and all Republicans is that Obama Administration is building some Wall Street support due to better economic trends and a willingness to offer bailout funds to some segments such as banks and the auto industry. As a trend overall Republicans in congress only get a 28% trust support level compared to a huge 58% for President Obama.
Likely if economic trends continue in a positive direction, President Obama could be an odds on favorite for re-election and almost any Republican candidate for president is merely wasting a lot of effort on a White House bid that will go nowhere. Palin may be beginning to sense these winds blowing, and might be dropping the first hints that maybe a 2012 presidential bid is only another train to nowhere.
The fact of the matter if the economy is strong by the 2012 election. And unemployment is much lower. And foreign policy successes like more cooperation with the Russians on the Iran nuclear issue and other areas are achieved, most voters won't be all that willing to replace the Democrats or Mr. Obama. Palin, as dense and clueless as she sometimes appears to be, might actually be getting this message, and dropping out of major obligations to advance her political ambitions might be curtailed in response. The Republicans might well throw up another weak ticket in 2012 and simply go through the motions of running a real team that could actually lead the country. Serious Republican candidates for president will likely wait to 2016 when neither Obama or Biden will run.
The Republicans certainly are not very likely to retake the White House running some female Dan Quayle like a Sarah Palin. Only serious candidates need apply.
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