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Economic Recovery Continues on Track

This is all quite normal and predictable.

New signs that the recession could be nearing a bottom emerged Thursday, as factory orders were far better than expected and the Dow industrials surged over 8,000 for the first time in two months.

The Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods rose 1.8 percent in February, reversing six straight monthly declines and easily beating estimates of another drop. Other economic indicators came in better than expected Wednesday, including construction spending and pending home sales.

And it's typical that the jobs recovery lags behind. Not everything finishes bottoming at the same time, and while durable orders are going up now those factories have to sell of the inventory that's built up from the slowdown before new orders = new jobs.

Still, the job situation remains grim. Traditionally, the labor market doesn't pick up until well after a recovery has started.

The monthly unemployment report due out Friday likely will be dismal, and new jobless claims reported Thursday were worse than expected.

So the Bad News Bears (aka Republicans) will continue to whine and lie and try to get Americans to believe that we're headed for a financial Armageddon, when in fact - we're right on track.

Hang in there, Americans - and don't listen to the Republican liars.


Note: Wizbang Blue is now closed and our authors have moved on. Paul Hooson can now be found at Wizbang Pop!. Please come see him there!

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Comments (13)

It's normal and predictable because every recession we've seen in the past 40 years reverses after ~18 months.

The Armageddon comes in ten or twenty years when our economy collapses under $40 trillion in federal debt and $100 trillion in unfunded Medicare liability.

Lee Ward:

Yeah, why on earth did I vote for George W Bush -- all he did was waste billions defended oil company interests and keeping the fat cat defense contractors rolling in our tax dollars...

Oh wait, I didn't vote for George W Bush -- you did, Baron.

I guess wasting billions on a needless war in Iraq is okay with you, and spending money to put Americans back to work isn't?

Doubting Thomas:

Funny how it takes three times the amount Bush spent to put Americans back to work...

Lee Ward:

It appears to be 3 times more because the Iraq war was "off the books."

I assume you're not dishonest - DT - so I'll guess that you're uninformed.

THE PRESIDENT: Let me sort of provide you an overarching frame, because I think that -- you know, there's -- the way that it has been discussed, I think, in some cases overstates the degree to which there's some massive transformational shift. On the other hand, in some ways it understates, I think, the significant reforms that are embedded in the budget.

So, point number one, this is a pretty honest budget. You've got billions of dollars that we've put into the budget that for the last eight years at least have never been acknowledged as costs. Fixing AMT, which is about $70 billion a year -- that was just off the books. The war in Iraq -- off the books. The way budgeting was done, it presumed that there was never, ever a national emergency arising out of a hurricane, a flood or tornado; that none of them existed.

Now, if we had continued on -- had we applied the same gimmicks and tricks to our budget as folks have been putting up with for the last eight years, including members of Congress, we could make our numbers look really pretty. We thought that that was the wrong approach.

So, number one, we have provided I think a honest document of what the costs of government are right now.

Change - it's an honest budget that acknowledges the true costs of government and doesn't take things like the billions spent on Iraq and just hide it and not put it in the budget.

Twenty years from now a free, democratic, and US allied Iraq will look like a good investment.

Meanwhile, the so-called stimulus money will be just another trillion dollar drop in our $50 trillion national debt bucket.

I don't believe rolling the Iraq war cost into the budget and projecting the 2008 level of cost out for 10 years so Obama can claim a "budget reduction" as our engagement winds down to be particularly honest.

Change - it's campaigning on the horrors of a $450 billion one year budget deficit under George W. Bush and quadrupling it in a single year.

Lee Ward:

Now, you're just demonstrating that in fact you weren't uninformed, you just prefer to pretend that the budget increase that resulted from including costs that Bush previously kept "off the books" doesn't exist. That's just plain blogosphere spin.

Get reality-based, Baron, fantasy-land is on the other side of the tracks.

The budget increase, to a significant extent, is not the result of additional spending as much as recognizing and including the money that was already being spent but not revealed in budget form.

To pretend that isn't a factor is dishonest.

To include those costs in the budget, is total honesty in government.

Last Bush budget = $2.9 trillion

First Obama budget = $3.7 trillion

Iraq war budget = $0.15 trillion

??????????????? = $0.65 trillion

That's on top of the $800 trillion "stimulus" and $500 billion omnibus supplementary spending bills already signed into law this year.

In the budget or not the Iraq war spending was already hitting the deficit. It's not like off budget spending doesn't show up on the ledgers when calculating the deficit/national debt. Obama has quadrupled the much maligned "Bush deficit" for at least the next three years.

Then throw in the additional miscellaneous trillion here and trillion there that have been promised to Wall Street and the IMF.

It's fantasy to claim the incrementally declining cost of the Iraq war is driving that explosion in deficit spending.

D'oh! That should be $800 billion stimulus package, not trillion.

Doubting Thomas:

Lee -

Bush ran a deficit. The deficit is what you have when the total expenses for the year are subtracted from the total income for the year. Agreed?

Obama's tripled that deficit, at the very least, in less than three months in office. If he keeps on like this the rest of the year, promising a trillion here and a half-trillion there, and a few hundred billion elsewhere, pretty soon that's going to add up to one hell of a deficit.

You don't get out of debt by getting deeper into debt. Sooner or later, nobody's going to be willing to take Obama's IOUs, and we're really going to be in trouble.

Steve:

If we have really hit bottom and started upward, maybe we could put a halt to the 800 billion "reinvestment" money being spent. It obviously isn't needed. That bill was rushed through congress under the pretense that the crisis ... the worst economy SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION!!!!! ... would be turning into a CATASTROPHE!!! No time to even read it ... we must have it now!

And about a month later, we're hearing encouraging signs. Has ANY of that money been spent yet? Stop the printing presses! NOW the media helpfully tells us that the unemployment figures are the highest in 25 years! I'm government educated, but I am pretty sure the Great Depression was more than 25 years ago ... and lasted quite a bit longer than 18 months....

GarandFan:

"It is another encouraging sign that the economic policies of the Obama White House are beginning to work."

Uh, has any of the 'stimulus money' even been spent yet? If not, "it's a miracle". Let's start calling him Saint Obama. Give him his own national holiday. Forget about the 600,000 recently UNEMPLOYED. Happy days are here again!
Yadda, yadda, yadda. Except my 401k is still "missing" $9k. Where'd that go?

Christina Viering:

Again, when and how will this trickle down to the common people?

Doubting Thomas:

I would expect a trickle-up factor, Christina - from your wallet trickling up to the government coffers, there to be spent on ... well, everything but something that'll do the wage-earner any good.

But you should feel WONDERFUL that someone else is so compassionate with your money!


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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