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Specter's Party Change: Pennsylvania Voter Registrations

A rather amazing shift in Pennsylvania voter registration has taken place over the last 10 years (h/t WaPo) according to the Pennsylvania Secretary of State:

The Pennsylvania Secretary of State records party registration information about the state's voters [...] Between 1998 and 2008, Democratic registration jumped by 860,552 but Republicans just 96,895; others went up 336,061 over that period.

Note that 8 of those 10 years saw George W. Bush in the White House -- and the first 8 years had a Republican-led Congress.

Update: Interesting take on the shift at WSJ:

"This state is in major transition," said Terry Madonna, a political scientist at Franklin & Marshall College, Lancaster, Pa. "The moderate base of the Republican Party is defecting, and that has put them in a precarious position in the state."

Across the state, counties that have voted Republican since the Civil War have gone Democrat, while the T-shaped conservative region in the state's rural midsection and north has been aging and losing population. Meanwhile, there has been an influx of people into the more liberal Philadelphia region. Others moving into the northeast part of the state, especially from New Jersey, also tend to vote Democrat.

Since 2004, 200,000 of the state's Republican voters have switched their party affiliation and become Democrats. In 2006, conservative Republican Rick Santorum, who argued that the theory of intelligent design should be taught alongside evolution and whose statements about homosexuality were viewed as intolerant by some voters, was soundly defeated in his bid for a third term by Sen. Casey.

Sen. Specter said his move to the Democratic side came after he assessed his chances for winning re-election in Pennsylvania, following his key vote in favor of President Barack Obama's stimulus package, which angered Republicans and prompted Republican Pat Toomey to declare that he would run in the Senate primary. In 2004, Mr. Toomey, who supports lower taxes and limited government, narrowly lost to Sen. Specter in the party primary.

"I have traveled the state," Sen. Specter said, "and have found that the prospects for winning a Republican primary are bleak."[...]

One survey last fall of Pennsylvania voters who had switched party affiliation from Republican to Democratic found that two-thirds said the Bush administration's policies were a significant factor in their decision, according to Chris Borick, a political scientist at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pa.


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Comments (4)

epador:

Good thing ACORN never worked in PA.

Lee Ward:

Oh don't worry - the right will blame statistics like this on ACORN anyway - they don't let the truth get in the way of a good lie.

And the nice thing for us Dems is as long as the GP keeps denying it had a problem that needs addressing, and blames those nefarious libs for causing the Republican defection in Pennsylvania, the longer its going to take th reality- challenged right to correct their problems.

We've created the "perfect storm" - we point out faults in the GOP - the GOP blames the libs - and the number of Republicans continues to drop.

Down to 21% and counting... it'll be in the teens in another 30 days.

Alan:

Anyone remember Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos"? I wonder how many of these were all Repubs who switched to Dems to vote for Hillary to spite Obama. If so, they haven't really switched, they'll switch back to the GOP next time.

Lee Ward:

The numbers I cited were over a 10 year period. A fraction, if any, were the result of blowhard Limbaugh.


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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