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James Carville's New Book Predicts GOP Will Spend The Next Forty Years As A Minority Party In American Politics

A new book by Democratic strategist James Carville, "40 MORE YEARS: HOW THE DEMOCRATS WILL RULE THE NEXT GENERATION" predicts one of the greatest American political realignments since the Roosevelt era in response to the Great Depression for the Democrats, leaving the Republicans with a minority party status for at least this next 40 years. jamescarville.jpg

Interestingly, some Republican strategists are now privately concurring with the basic thesis of Carville's new book as well.

Carville does believe that a few pretty good GOP candidates might be able to still capture the White House once in a while over the next forty years, or that in 2010, the Republicans could make some minor gains in congress, as Carville believes it might be impossible for the Democrats to have three big elections in a row go in their favor. Yet, he still sees enough of a trend among young voters and minorities such as Hispanic, Asian and African American voters voting Democratic that it spells overall policy problems for the GOP whose values and positions on issues are from the economic or social views of many voters. As a whole, the Republican Party has simply become too conservative, and too much a party of some White voters from conservative regions of the country such as parts of the South or parts of the West to really be a true national party.

Even back around 1968, a Republican such as Richard Nixon could count on some regional strength from all regions of the country. However, in New England for example, very few Republicans now represent that region and reliable Republican states such as Maine and New Hampshire have now leaned strongly Democratic for years, unlike the past when they would traditionally lean Republican. In the West, Oregon and Washington once both leaned Republican as late as 1972, but then Oregon was nearly evenly split in 1976, when Gerald Ford just barely won the state. But in recent years, Oregon has leaned solidly Democratic. and the in the state, the Governor and both chambers of the legislature are run by the Democrats, and both U.S. senators and all but one member of congress, Greg Walden, are now Democrats as well.

Part of the difficulty for Republicans is that they really lack a charismatic figure like a Reagan right now, who was able to present a strong message as well as to act as a strong messenger. On the other hand, the Democrats have one of their best and most charismatic figures ever in President Obama right now. And Obama seems to make a real connection as appealing to the average person although he is a highly educated intellectual. The Democrats have the perfect message and messenger at this time, while the Republicans really lack both important aspects.

Another part of the problem for Republicans as well is the increasing conservative trend of the party, where mainstream Republicans such as retired General Colin Powell were denounced by Dick Cheney and others for merely mentioning that he believed the party should move to a more centrist vision. Even Newt Gingrich. who was the architect of the highly successful "Contract With America" that helped Republicans to take control of both congress and the senate during the Clinton years, seems to have moved past seeking to build an electoral success with voters towards increased conservatism as well.

Many Republican leaders such as Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin also seem to want to champion only a small very conservative faction of voters, and to take their party down to a path of a disastrous 1964 Barry Goldwater type defeat. They seem to wholly reject consensus building politics. By comparison, Democrats may not be without some blame by voters as well, however they manage to make enough of a positive connection on enough issues such as economic ones to satisfy enough voters to probably end up on the top end of most future elections for decades.

The unfortunate fact is that some Republican leaders are acting like some painter who did not plan ahead, and slowly painted himself into a smaller and smaller corner, with no viable way out of a real unfortunate disaster. If anything, that's not very smart politics. That's also nothing like the consensus politics that some Republicans such as a Dwight Eisenhower or Richard Nixon once used to win the White House, and it's even less like the charisma of a Ronald Reagan who promised a return to greatness for America if elected.

For a growing number of apparent political factors, the basic thesis of political consultant James Carville's new book may indeed be correct. Democrats may well be in the very best position of the two political parties to be in the driver seat of policy decisions as well a most of the electoral successes. The social and political demographics are simply not running in the Republicans favor right now. Unless the Democrats can blow their opportunity to rule big time, then the Republicans really have very little to look forward to in the near future. But for now, their attacks seem largely petty and like mere pinpricks compared to really effect issue building.

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Comments (10)

ed davis:

His face is beaming with the happy sunshine manifested by living a positive life of love. It shows the joy of giving selflessly to others. I especially admire how his effortless smile demonstrates how his philosophy is so successful at bringing joy into his life.

Mac Lorry:

Carville's prediction assumes success on the many major issues Obama has taken on, but a failure of any of those that can be laid at the feet of the Democrats could bring the Republican's back into power as quickly as the Democrats were brought back into power.

The huge deficits Obama is piling up on top of the large Bush deficits are going to require the fed to substantial raise interest rates or risk high inflation. Either high interest rates or high inflation will stagnated the economy. I know liberals and conservatives alike want to believe that people vote for an ideology, but that's true for only a minority of voters. The majority of the electorate votes their pocketbook first and if unemployment is still high in 2012 Obama will be at risk of being a one term president.

Obama's energy plan is based on the theory that CO2 is the major cause of global warming, but science is not stagnate and an alternate theory is being researched at CERN with results expected in 2010. If the CERN experiments prove the sun, cosmic ray, cloud effect is real the science of climate change will itself change dramatically. Obama's carbon tax will then be based on junk science, something Republicans have been warning about for years. The consequences of the Al Gore global warming scam could be staggering for democrats.

Health care is another major change that could go terribly wrong for democrats. Yes, 40 million don't have insurance, but 260 million do and 80% (208 million) of them say they are happy with their health care. If, like in Canada, people have to wait in lines two blocks long just to make an appointment to see a dentist, this one issue could turn many elections in favor of Republicans.

Obama want's to fool with Social Security and this less than four years after democrats made the case that Social Security was sound in opposition to Bush wanting to make changes. If the proposed changes mess with the benefits people 50 and over are now getting or are projected to get, Democrats will have a large block voting for Republicans. This is particularly true now that so many people have had their 401(k) accounts decimated.

Obama and Democrats in general have been making a big stink about torture, but if defending the United States justifies stealthily lobbing hellfire missiles into Pakistani homes with women and children present, which Obama has ordered, then defending the United States also justifies the use of enhanced interrogations techniques on the very masterminds of terror for the purpose of gaining information to save American lives. If Obama is seen as dropping the ball on homeland defense and there's another 9/11 magnitude attack on American soil then Obama and the Democrats will be run out of office.

Remember just a 3.7% shift in the voting would have given McCain the win over Obama even though McCain was running against a headwind. Carville's prediction based more on hope than on likely outcomes.

And no, I'm not rooting for Obama to fail, just pointing out that failure is possible if not likely. I always have to add that when I post on the Blue side.

Rich Fader:

I remind you that Jim swore up and down that Gore and Kerry would win. What are the stakes when...sorry, if...he loses? (No, let's be honest. It's definitely going to be "when". And it's going to be sooner rather than later.) But again, what is Jim going to do when he loses? Bag his ugly head? Nope, he already did that in 2000. Facepalm with a raw egg? Nope, he already did that in 2004. Whatever it is, it's got to be really funny and really humiliating.


Ed, I got to say, your comment made me laugh out loud. Well played, sir.


Just another talking head that doesn't know manure. Both sides have them, and they are all full of it.


just remember, it wasn't all that long ago that republican politicos were contemplating a permenant majority.

the democrats won the last election not on their own ideology, but on bush fatigue and an un-inspiring republican candidate. if you look that the resmussen issue polls, back in october, the democrats were winning all 10 issues they polled on. since then, republicans have made significant gains on the issues and now lead in 4 of the categories and are tied or close on most of the others.

the problem for democrats is that, in the end, their economic policies are bunk, and people are realizing that now that democrats are in charge.

Lee Ward:

Unlike Limpbaugh, Carville has some street creds in the political arena.

He knows what he's talking about, but not above playing politics with his predictions. He'll predict what he "wants" to become true... how much he actually believes is another matter.

I've predicted a 20 year drought for Republicans, so I think his 40 year prediction is way overblown.... but some will say my 20 year prediction is overblown too.

ed davis:

He is the giant red mushroom of the party. As in "DON"T COME NEAR THIS. IT IS POISONOUS!" Watch Maddow. Watch Olberman. Listen to Sykes. Garafalo. The list goes on. Watch or listen to ANY of them. Hell, read Lee Ward. Do you think any of them are happy about anything? And people wonder why liberalism and those that espouse it are getting a creepy stigma. Progressibe liberalisms champions overwhelmingly come across as miserable people whose sole purpose in life is to lash out and blame or name call other people in a childish attempt at feeling better about their own personal demise. Like crack addicts. The bad kind of addicts. The kind that would rob or kill someone for another twenty-cent piece.


If enough conservatives are unhappy with the present state of the GOP and the GOP maintains its current state of disarray, lack of coherence, whatever AND a relatively strong third party composed of disaffected conservatives appears......yep, I'd say it might be a long time till Republicans regain significant power on the political scene. It's all about strong leadership and the Republicans will forever have to work harder for it than the Democrats; the Democrat party has always been able to achieve more with much less effort than the GOP.


It might take the GOP time to recover, but regardless of Republican woes, I predict Obama will have virtually no chance of reelection in 2012 (if there was ever a time a 3rd party could succeed, it will be then). We've kicked our economic troubles down the road too long (both parties) and Obama is trying the same approach with these ever increasing budgets, bailouts, and hiding the true financial books (bogus stress tests).

It won't work for another 4 years. Who's going to keep buying our debt for that long at our practically exponentially increasing demand? 10-year treasury rates are already rising in spite of qualitative easing. I see an economic collapse far worse than the Depression and Obama will be Hoover, not FDR to the American people.


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Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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