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Bobby Jindal And Mike Huckabee Make First Steps Into Iowa

It is hard to believe it, but both Bobby Jindal and Mike Huckabee are already beginning to make their first visits into Iowa in preparation for the 2012 Iowa Caucus. And Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are soon expected to follow. Each is putting a toe in the water to weigh if there's support to start forming a campaign committee and to start fundraising activity.

However, all of this comes against a backdrop of good economic news today in the U.S. and China, and Wall Street up significantly by a more than a couple hundred points and President Obama's approval numbers a few points higher than his winning margin over John McCain in 2008. The fact of the matter is that 2012 is more likely than not to be a race for GOP candidate to lose, and the best GOP challengers should probably wait until 2016. However, it is possible that Hillary Clinton could run that year, and present a further roadblock to GOP plans to retake the White House for another eight years.

The fact of the matter is that the candidates running for president on the GOP side are largely fringe support figures with a serious lack of the broad appeal among all voters to really have a realistic chance to win an election. Perhaps outside of Mitt Romney, none of them are really electable figures. But Mitt Romney has the added problem that he cannot win the GOP nomination in a party that has never even nominated a Catholic for president, let alone a Mormon. And Jindal is running in a party with few elected office holders of color compared to even the Democrats, making his chances of capturing the GOP nomination slim as well. Sarah Palin appeals only to fringe of GOP voters as well.

In 2008, John McCain might have looked like the most electable of the GOP crowded list of candidates, however even that proved to be way too little compared to the excellent Democratic candidate in Barack Obama and his extremely well run campaign. In 2012, the GOP challenge might be far greater yet with the nomination of a less acceptable nominee and against the backdrop of an a greatly improved American economy, President Obama could be poised for a landslide re-election win. 2012 might just be a GOP race to see who will lose and become another insignificant and fringe GOP figure like Barry Goldwater did in 1964, while the better GOP potential candidates wait until 2016 for a better shot.

I guess it may not really matter just how much some early GOP candidates wander into Iowa if the political environment is running strongly against them. HuckabeeGuitar_300.jpg

Mike Huckabee don't lose that name tag. You might need it so that voters know who you are.


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Comments (1)

ke_future:

just out of curiosity, when the the democrats start visiting iowa after 2000 and 2004?

also, you are wrong about mitt having a chance with republicans. after this last election, most republicans i know talked about how they would rather have had mitt than mccain running, especially because of the economy.

i don't think huckabee has a chance. he appeals to the social conservatives, but not to the fiscal conservatives or role of government conservatives. as far as i know he also doesn't really have a foreign policy agenda or back ground.

jindal has domestic experience at various levels of government. both as a state executive and in government health related roles. he also appeals to social conservatives. his chances will really depend on how Louisianna is doing by 2011.

newt, i think is too polarizing of a figure. he's smart tho, and drives discussions and ideas. he's good to have in the mix to force others to refine their ideas.

palin is not as fringe of a politician as the political elite on the left make her out to be. she has a decent record in alaska, draws good crowds, and has governed from the center. those on the left always yell about how she is some far-right fringer, but i've yet to see them point to any actual political actions she has taken that bare this out. and by 2012, she'll have plenty of experience, both in office and with the media.

at least that is my early analysis. it's a fun game. can't wait to see who the dark horses are.


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Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Lee Ward, Larkin, Paul S Hooson, and Steve Crickmore

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